914
FXUS62 KTBW 060019
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
819 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
A residing high pressure system to the northeast will extend over
the Florida peninsula through Saturday. This, coupled with a low
pressure north of the Bahamas, will result in a weak pressure
gradient that keeps our easterly winds generally calm. Scattered
to numerous thunderstorms remain possible throughout the region.
Perhaps the most concerning issue stems from the maintained high
temperatures over our southwest and west central regions. A heat
advisory has been issued until 7PM EDT for HI values up to 112.
This hot and humid pattern is expected to persist through the
weekend, and further advisories may be warranted in the coming
days.

Looking a little further in time, the high pressure ridge axis
will begin to rebuild over the region next week. Elevated moisture
in the area will continue to contribute to our traditional
scattered to numerous sea breeze driven showers and thunderstorms.
High temperatures will persist throughout the week but heat index
values are currently not expected to reach 108+ advisory criteria.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 817 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Most of the thunderstorm activity has dissipated over the last
hour or two. Best shot to still see some VCTS over the next few
hours will be at FMY and RSW. Much of the same tomorrow with
afternoon and evening thunderstorms possible with light winds and
VFR condition outside of thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Weak pressure gradient to keep winds light and seas slight through
the weekend that will continue into early next week. Main concern
will be scattered to numerous thunderstorms that produce locally
gusty winds and higher seas along with dangerous lightning for
mariners and along area beaches. Small underlying long period
swells may move into the E Gulf waters from the S-SW Gulf into
next week as well.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Abundant moisture and light winds to keep fire concerns minimalized,
but the light winds may produce low dispersion values through the
weekend. Expect daily thunderstorms and dangerous lightning that
may ignite or hold over in dry fuels outside of rain cores.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  93  79  93 /  30  60  40  70
FMY  77  93  78  93 /  50  60  20  70
GIF  77  95  77  96 /  20  30  20  70
SRQ  78  92  78  93 /  40  60  30  70
BKV  75  94  75  94 /  40  60  30  70
SPG  81  93  83  93 /  40  60  40  70

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Hubbard
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hubbard