522
FXUS62 KTAE 080536
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
136 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 832 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Temperatures were brought in line with observations this evening
as evening thunderstorms practically covered the entire region
today. With shower and thunderstorm activity waining, PoPs were
also adjusted lower through the overnight hours as much of the
region has been worked over, and a low level CAP has developed.
With temperatures and PoP both adjusted, so was QPF, dewpoint
temperatures, RH, and apparent temperatures through the next 12
hours to reflect the changes. Overall, a quiet night is expected
as much of the shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished
this evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 233 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Deep layer moisture remains over the area through the near term
along with some ridging aloft. This will lead to scattered showers
and storms during the afternoon hours with gusty winds and locally
heavy rainfall possible. Temperatures will remain unseasonably warm
in the 90s with heat index values in the 105 to 110 degree range. A
heat advisory will most likely be needed over at least some of the
area again tomorrow, but opting to let the mid shift refine the
details once more before issuing. Lows are forecast to remain in the
mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 233 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

The remnants of Beryl will swing into the Mid-South on Tuesday
with an upper-level low moving west across the northern Bahamas
toward the east coast of Florida and an old boundary draped across
the Southeast. This coupled with high PWATs of 2 to 2.3 inches
will lead to very high rain chances Tuesday afternoon across the
area. Rain chances are around 70 to 80 percent Tuesday afternoon.
This level of moisture could lead to some locally heavy downpours
and nuisance type flooding should storms move slowly or train.
Otherwise, it will remain hot and muggy with highs in the lower to
middle 90s and lows in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Heat index
values will be around 104-109.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 233 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

The remnants of Beryl get swept away and absorbed by a trough over
the Great Lakes. This will send a weak cold front through the area
Wednesday, but it may stall just south of our area. Upper-level
ridging noses its way into our area, and PWATs may come down
slightly -- more like 1.7 to 1.9 inches. Thus, rain chances
will still remain elevated on Wednesday (around 60 to 70
percent) before dropping on Thursday in the wake of the frontal
passage. Rain chances will increase again heading into the
weekend as moisture increases yet again.

Meanwhile, temperatures will be on the rise as upper-level ridging
builds back, but we`ll have some "drier" air in its wake. Dew
points will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s as opposed to mid 70s
to lower 80s. This will finally bring a short-lived reprieve to
our daily Heat Advisories with heat index values closer to 100 to
106. However, actual temperatures will still be in the middle to
upper 90s with lows in the 70s. With the increase in moisture over
the weekend, it looks like we could be in for a return to Heat
Advisory conditions next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Scattered pockets of low ceilings may develop just prior to sunrise
around ABY and DHN. Even if this occurs, VFR conditions will return
quickly after sunrise. For this afternoon, scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop areawide.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Generally light west to southwest winds are expected over the next
several days with seas around 1 to 3 feet. Long period swells will
diminish over the next day or so as Beryl moves inland over
southeast Texas. Scattered showers and storms will be possible
each night and morning.&&

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Fire weather concerns are expected to remain minimal with a moist
airmass in place and a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Heat index values will be high each afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

No significant hydro concerns are anticipated. Daily showers and
storms will have plenty of moisture to work with and could produce
locally heavy downpours in a short period of time. This could lead
to daily chances for nuisance flooding or perhaps flash flooding
in isolated cases. But widespread flood concerns are not expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   95  78  92  78 /  60  30  80  20
Panama City   91  81  90  82 /  50  30  80  40
Dothan        95  76  93  77 /  40  20  70  10
Albany        93  77  94  78 /  60  30  70  10
Valdosta      95  77  93  77 /  60  30  80  20
Cross City    94  78  91  80 /  50  30  80  40
Apalachicola  89  81  89  82 /  40  30  70  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Young