682
FXUS62 KTAE 061909
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
309 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Deep layer moisture remains over the area through the near term
along with some ridging aloft. This will lead to scattered showers
and storms during the afternoon hours with gusty winds and locally
heavy rainfall possible. Temperatures will remain unseasonably warm
in the 90s with heat index values in the 105 to 109 degree range.
Held off on a head advisory at this point due to the uncertainty on
shower and thunderstorm coverage and the subsequent effect of that
on the highs. Lows are forecast to remain in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 306 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

More of the same is in the forecast with the chance for showers
and storms Monday afternoon into the evening. Temperatures will
climb into the middle 90s Monday afternoon with middle to upper
70s for much of the area Sunday and Monday nights.

Rain chances remain in the forecast despite the area being under an
H5 ridge thanks to ample moisture in place. When combined with the
daytime heating and the afternoon sea breeze, it should be enough to
get scattered showers and storms going Monday afternoon. Dew points
are forecast to be a tick lower Monday afternoon, which should keep
heat indices generally between 103 to 107, or just shy of Heat
Advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 306 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Not much change is forecast in the long term with daily afternoon
shower/storm chances and highs in the middle 90s and lows in the
middle to upper 70s each night.

Looking a little deeper, there is an interesting H5 pattern taking
shape across the US into the Atlantic with building H5 ridges over
Utah/Nevada and near Bermuda. Meanwhile, a weak trough over the
Great Lakes will keep the core of these ridges away from the region
for much of the long term period. That said, H5 heights of 591dm are
enough to keep lower to middle 90s in the forecast each afternoon.
At the surface, a strong Bermuda high keeps ample moisture over the
region, which is why shower and thunderstorm chances remain in the
forecast each afternoon.

It`s also worth noting that the remnants of Beryl will get absorbed
into the mid-level flow early next week. Some guidance is suggesting
slightly lower rain chances Wednesday as the remnants pass well to
our north. Wasn`t sold on lowering rain chances too much as of yet,
but it`s something we`ll monitor in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 114 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected
across the area this afternoon and evening. Gusty erratic winds
along with lowering ceilings and visibility will be possible with
any convection. A few spots of patchy fog and/or MVFR ceilings are
possible in the morning, but confidence is too low to include for
now. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Isolated showers and storms remain possible into early next week,
especially in the overnight and morning hours. Light southerly to
southwesterly winds are expected into Tuesday before increasing
slightly as the pressure gradient tightens over the northeastern
Gulf of Mexico by mid-week. Long period swells from Beryl will
continue to move through the area into early next week before
subsiding by mid-week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Fire weather concerns are expected to remain minimal with a moist
airmass in place and a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Heat index values will be high each afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected the next several
days thanks to a moist summer environment in place. While widespread
heavy rainfall is not currently expected, localized pockets of heavy
rain in a short period of time could produced localized flash
flooding, especially in urban and/or poor drainage areas and in
areas that have already seen heavy rain during the past few days. No
riverine flooding is anticipated the next 7 to 10 days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   77  94  76  93 /  10  60  20  60
Panama City   79  91  79  91 /  10  20  20  50
Dothan        76  94  75  93 /  50  60  20  50
Albany        76  92  76  93 /  60  60  20  50
Valdosta      77  93  76  93 /  50  60  20  50
Cross City    77  94  76  92 /  10  40  20  60
Apalachicola  80  89  79  89 /  20  20  20  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ120>131-142>148-
     155>161.

AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Reese