013
FXUS62 KTAE 111716
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
116 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 246 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

A weak cold front is forecast to settle in over the area later today
with relatively dry air in its wake. A few showers and storms will
be possible today generally south of the I-10 corridor along the
seabreeze. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will be possible
with any storms. Convective activity is forecast to quickly fall off
after sunset over land, although some additional showers and storms
may persist over the Gulf overnight. Highs today are forecast in the
low to mid 90s with the drier air overhead keeping heat indices
thankfully in the 95 to 103 degree range this afternoon. Lows
overnight tonight are forecast to fall into the low to mid 70s.
While these values are fairly normal for this time of year, they
will still feel like a welcome respite from the abnormally hot and
suffocatingly humid conditions of late.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 246 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

500 mb heights will rise pretty strongly over the course of
Friday and Saturday, as the very strong mid-level high north of
Bermuda expands westward as a ridge along 30N and across the far
northern Gulf. 500 mb heights will peak across our region around
5960-5970 meters, which would exceed the daily max in the SPC
sounding climatology.

Such strong high pressure aloft, along with dry air in the 700-500
mb layer, will lead to convective shutdown on Friday for most of
the region. Sufficiently deep moisture may be present over the SE
Big Bend and perhaps along the Forgotten Coast seabreeze for an
isolated shower or thunderstorm, but areas along and north of I-10
will see convection-killing PW values of less than 1.5 inches.

Saturday will see a modest northward expansion of places that
could get an afternoon thunderstorm, as the moistening effect of
the seabreeze penetrates further inland. Despite more favorable PW
values on Saturday, the peaking strength of mid-level high
pressure should hold thunderstorm coverage below normal mid-July
coverage.

Under mid-level high pressure, the ensuing warm air aloft will
boost our afternoon temperatures well above normal. By Saturday,
inland highs will reach the upper 90s, with a couple of spots
likely to flirt with the century mark. When combined with a return
of dewpoints into the 70s, Saturday will be the next day to
potentially reach Heat Advisory criteria, mainly over our Florida
counties.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

The extremely strong 500 mb subtropical ridge axis of Saturday
will start to loosen its grip over the Southeast U.S. on Sunday
and Monday, as we come under a relative weakness between the
climatological Four Corners high over the western U.S., and the
Bermuda high well off to the east. By Tuesday, our 500 mb heights
will fall into the closer-to-normal 5900-5920 meter range. Weak
low- level southwest flow will boost PW values into the
climatologically normal (for mid- summer) 1.8-2 inch range. With
some of our key parameters coming into normal ranges for mid-
summer, complete with moderate convective instability, our
thunderstorm coverage will ramp up to very normal scattered
coverage. The increased convective coverage will help lower high
temperatures back into the low-mid 90s, though the return of yucky
dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s should support heat index values
that will could bring repeated days of Heat Advisory criteria.

All things considered, the Sunday through Wednesday time frame
will feature quintessentially normal mid-summer weather, except
for temperatures running a couple degrees above normal. With bulk
shear values of only about 10 knots, single-cell pulse storms will
be the preferred convective structure.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Isolated showers and thunderstorms may be possible affecting ECP
and TLH terminals this afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected for all terminals through the TAF period with light
northwesterly winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Broad low pressure near the coastal Carolinas will support
moderate southwest breezes at times through Friday. Surface high
pressure over the eastern Gulf will expand and strengthen on
Saturday, bringing a decrease in wind speeds. A high pressure
ridge axis will persist from the Florida Peninsula to the Middle
Gulf on Sunday and Monday, bringing light and gentle southwest
breezes.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

A weak front is forecast to sag southward into the area today before
eventually stalling out. Drier air is forecast to filter in overhead
in the wake of the front, allowing very high mixing heights during
the day which will drive up dispersions across much of the area.
Isolated showers and storms will be possible each day for the next
several days, primarily along and south of the I-10 corridor.
Other than high dispersions and hot temperatures, there are no
fire weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Flooding is not expected for the next 7 days.

Thunderstorm activity will be diminished through Friday, then make
a gradual return over the weekend. By next week, short-lived
runoff issues will be possible beneath any slow-moving
thunderstorms, as is typical in the summer.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   74  97  75  98 /   0  10   0  30
Panama City   78  94  79  94 /  10  10  10  30
Dothan        72  97  73  98 /   0  10   0  20
Albany        73  97  74  98 /   0  10   0  20
Valdosta      73  97  75  97 /   0  20  10  30
Cross City    75  96  75  95 /  10  30  10  50
Apalachicola  79  93  78  92 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Haner