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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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785 FXUS62 KTAE 122313 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 713 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Through Saturday) Issued at 232 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Another relatively quiet weather is on tap through tomorrow. Ridging aloft will continue to supress convection and fair weather Cu could be expected again tomorrow afternoon. Some weak development along the sea breeze could be possible, but PoPs are low. Otherwise, it`ll be a pleasant day. Expect daytime highs generally in the mid to upper 90s with overnight lows generally in the mid to upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday night through Sunday night) Issued at 232 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Upper level ridge will be in control of upper level pattern over the weekend and with lower rain chances likely, temperatures will be quite warm and in the mid to upper 90s. While deep layer moisture will not support widespread showers and storms, plenty of low-level moisture and abundant sunshine should allow heat indices to creep back up to to near advisory level criteria of 108 F. Scattered showers and storms should develop in the afternoon and mostly along the seabreezes. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 232 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 The warm temperatures continue into the early part of next week but as the ridge weakens and deep-layer moisture makes a steady return in response to a deepening trough over the central/eastern portions of the US, rain chances will likely increase through the week. Additionally, the higher rain chances should keep max temperatures a few degrees lower into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 711 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period. Some isolated TSRA may develop near ECP and TLH as the sea breeze moves inland after 18z, where winds become more southwesterly. Otherwise, light and variable winds are expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 232 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Light winds and seas will prevail through the weekend and next week with high pressure in control. Only sensible weather concerns through the period will be slight increases in nearshore winds as the seabreeze develops each afternoon. Mostly dry conditions are forecast through the weekend with rain chances increasing early next week. Highest rain chances will generally be in the early morning hours next week when rain chances return. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 232 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 A few showers and storms will be possible each day, mainly south of I-10. High mixing heights may lead to very good dispersions for portions of the area in the afternoons. There are no fire weather concerns at this point. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 232 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Rainfall amounts will be less than 2 to 3 inches through the next 7 days with most of these rainfall amounts falling next week if the current return to a more normal summer patten verifies next week. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 97 76 97 77 / 10 0 30 10 Panama City 94 80 93 80 / 10 10 40 10 Dothan 96 74 98 76 / 10 0 20 0 Albany 96 73 98 76 / 0 0 10 0 Valdosta 97 74 98 76 / 0 0 10 0 Cross City 96 76 96 76 / 10 10 40 10 Apalachicola 93 80 92 80 / 20 10 50 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ Saturday for FLZ112-114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Oliver SHORT TERM...Dobbs LONG TERM....Dobbs AVIATION...Young MARINE...Dobbs FIRE WEATHER...Oliver HYDROLOGY...Dobbs