Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
223 FXUS62 KTAE 040833 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 433 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 406 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Upper ridge remains situated over the southeast through the fourth of July with a moist and unstable airmass at the surface. Afternoon thunderstorms will be driven by the seabreeze and perhaps airmass thunderstorms in our SE AL and SW GA counties as no synoptic forcing mechanisms appear evident today. As such, a later start in convective activity appears possible today compared to the past few days. With delayed convection, temperatures are expected to reach and/or exceed heat advisory criteria as there will be less thunderstorm coverage during the onset of peak heating that will cool the air down. Decided to issue a heat advisory covering all of our FL counties, all of SE AL, and southernmost tier of SW GA counties as heat indices will range from 108-111 across the aforementioned areas. Make sure to drink plenty of water, wear light and loose clothing, and limit time outdoors today. High temperatures are expected to reach the low to mid 90s this afternoon with lows in the upper 70s this evening. && .SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 406 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Upper level ridging holds through the forecast period, with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms expected. An upper level trough on Friday slides across the Great Lakes, flattening the ridge for the weekend. A front is expected to trail into the southeastern US, which may lead to more widespread showers and storms. Severe weather is not expected at this time, but heavy rain and gusty winds are possible. In terms of temperatures, warm and muggy conditions continue. We continue to see highs range generally in the mid to upper 90s most days with heat index values ranging from 105-113 in the FL counties, SE AL, along our FL/GA border, and creeping into the I-75 corridor. Overnight temperatures will not see much in terms of temperature or humidity reprieve. With the prolonged heat in the forecast, consider taking safety precautions when doing outdoor activities. You can learn more about heat safety at weather.gov/heat. Long-period swell from Hurricane Beryl is forecast to arrive Friday and last into the weekend. This swell will likely cause extremely dangerous rip currents and cause erosion along area beaches. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 137 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through around 09-11z as ceilings and perhaps visibilities drop to MVFR, with uncertainty surrounding if IFR will be reached. Regardless, VFR will resume && .MARINE... Issued at 406 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected this morning. Increased nocturnal and early morning precipitation returns for the weekend due to the diurnal land breeze circulation. Winds will generally fluctuate from the south to west, with winds increasing a touch early next week. A long period swell from Hurricane Beryl will arrive Friday and gradually subside over the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 406 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Conditions are expected to remain moist with high rain chances through the weekend keeping fire weather concerns low. The only immediate concerns at this time are low dispersions across portions of SW GA today. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 406 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 No major changes to the forecast. Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected over the next week or so, and with the tropical airmass in place, locally heavy rainfall is possible. Widespread flooding isn`t expected, but nuisance flooding remains possible especially over saturated, poor drainage, and urban areas. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 94 77 95 77 / 70 20 60 10 Panama City 91 79 91 79 / 50 10 50 10 Dothan 94 76 95 76 / 50 20 70 20 Albany 94 77 94 77 / 60 20 60 20 Valdosta 93 76 95 76 / 70 20 60 20 Cross City 94 76 93 75 / 70 30 50 10 Apalachicola 90 79 89 79 / 50 10 40 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning to 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108- 112-114-115-118-127-128-134. GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM EDT this evening for GAZ155>160. AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ065>069. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Worster SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...Worster MARINE...KR FIRE WEATHER...Worster HYDROLOGY...KR