319
FXUS62 KTAE 141712
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
112 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Ridging overhead today will once again allow high temperatures to
rise into the mid to upper 90s this afternoon. Gradually increasing
moisture across the region will also allow heat indices to creep up
to the 105 to 110 degree range, and a heat advisory has been issued
for portions of Florida and Southeast Alabama where confidence in
108+ is higher. Increasing moisture will also allow a bit more
coverage of showers and storms this afternoon, although most
activity is expected to remain along the seabreeze generally south
of I-10. Lows are expected in the mid 70s inland and the upper 70s
along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 355 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

The mid-level ridge will be in the process of weakening as the work
week starts. Add in more moisture returning to the area and the sea
breeze should be more robust Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Locally
heavy rain is the primary concern within any of the thunderstorms as
they mosey about the region due to rather weak steering flow aloft.
Hot temperatures are expected outside of the thunderstorms with
highs in the middle to upper 90s both afternoons. With the added
surface moisture, heat indices will be approaching Heat Advisory
criteria both afternoons.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 355 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

The big story in the extended forecast is the return of scattered to
perhaps numerous showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. This is
due to a mid-level trough attempting to move over the eastern half
of the country. Precipitable water values (PWATS) between 1.9" and
2.3" are forecast to return by the middle of the week, which should
enhance the coverage of showers and storms along the sea breeze.
That said, have elected to cap rain chances at 60 percent this far
out, which continue to remain in-line with MOS guidance. It`s worth
noting that the NBM has 80 to 90 percent POPs in the extended. As
mentioned yesterday, the NBM has had a bit of a wet bias as of late
the past few weeks, which played into the decision to temper rain
chances for much of the long term period. Temperatures ease back
into the lower to middle 90s each afternoon thanks to the increased
potential for clouds/rain. Overnight lows will remain a few degrees
above normal, or generally in the middle to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 108 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Only exception
will be very brief MVFR/IFR conditions if any thunderstorms
develop in the vicinity of any terminals. Thunderstorms will
generally be most prevalent from 19-00z this afternoon with quiet
conditions expected overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Favorable marine conditions are forecast into early next week. Light
to moderate westerly winds turn more southwesterly by mid to late
next week with seas generally less than 2 feet. Rain chances
increase through next week, with the highest chances for rain
generally in the early morning hours and in the middle part of the
upcoming week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon,
with the greatest coverage generally across Florida and along the
seabreeze. Moisture will continue to gradually increase across the
area over the next few days. There are no fire weather concerns at
this time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible along the sea
breeze this afternoon. More moisture works back into the region
early next week, increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms
each afternoon and evening. Localized street and nuisance flooding
may be possible within any slow moving showers and thunderstorms, as
is typical in the summer.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   77  95  76  95 /  10  60  20  60
Panama City   79  91  79  92 /  10  60  20  60
Dothan        76  97  75  96 /  10  60  20  60
Albany        77  97  76  96 /  10  50  20  60
Valdosta      77  97  76  97 /  20  60  20  60
Cross City    76  94  76  95 /  10  60  20  60
Apalachicola  79  90  79  90 /  10  50  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for
     FLZ007>019-026-027-108-112-114-115-118-127.

GA...None.
AL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ068.

GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...Reese
HYDROLOGY...Reese