634
FXUS62 KTAE 142340
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
740 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Models have struggled to capture the drier mid to upper levels this
afternoon and they, and to a lesser extent our forecast, have been a
little wetter than current radar coverage shows across the area.
With drier mid-levels, rain chances will probably peak in the next 2
to 4 hours before decreasing insolation reduces instability and
storm coverage this evening after 7pm.

For tomorrow, temperatures will likely be a degree or two lower as
the mid-upper level dry air begins to move out and better deep-layer
moisture moves in. The best coverage for afternoon storms is likely
to across the Panhandle and southeast Alabama with scattered
coverage of storms still possible across the Big Bend and southern
Georgia. Heat indicies will be a touch lower, around 105, but
isolated areas could be higher before thunderstorms and increasing
clouds bring heat indices down later in the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Weak upper level and mid level ridging will gradually weaken
through this period, as an upper level trough develop deepens over
Canada and sags into the upper Midwest. At the surface,
southwest flow will usher in more moisture to the region.
Seabreeze showers and storms, which should be more scattered.
Heavy rain looks to be the primary hazard, and since storms may be
slow moving at times, nuisance or localized flooding will be
possible. Highs for this period will be in the mid to upper 90s,
with heat index values in the 103 to 110 range. Heat Advisories
may be possible for at least the FL counties each afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

A wetter weather pattern returns for much of the extended period
of the forecast. Southwest flow will gradually increase PWAT
values to about 2.0-2.5", while aloft upper level troughing sits
to our north. Scattered to perhaps widespread showers and
thunderstorms are expected each afternoon and may linger into the
evening. Trended the NBM PoP down a bit like the previous shift as
raw NBM was giving PoP in excess of 80. A good compromise to fit
in with MOS was the NBM 6hourly PoP blocks. High temperatures
ease back into the low to mid 90s each afternoon thanks to the
increased potential for clouds/rain. Overnight lows will remain a
few degrees above normal, or generally in the middle to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 739 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the overnight hours
with upper cirrus spreading over the region. VFR will continue
through tomorrow early tomorrow afternoon with thunderstorms forming
near KECP around 16z and all other sites around 18z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Favorable marine conditions are forecast through mid week. Light
to moderate westerly winds turn more southwesterly by mid to late
week with seas generally less than 2 feet. Rain chances increase
throughout the week, with the highest chances for rain generally
in the early morning hours and in the middle part of the upcoming
week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

A wetter pattern could develop through the week which will keep fire
weather concerns low through the next few days. Only concerns will
be scattered thunderstorms each afternoon for any ongoing fires or
prescribed burns that occur during the period. Dispersions will
remain good through the next few days.&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible along the sea
breeze this afternoon. More moisture works back into the region
this week, increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon and evening. Localized street and nuisance flooding may
be possible within any slow moving showers and thunderstorms, as
is typical in the summer.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible along the sea
breeze this afternoon. More moisture works back into the region
this week, increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon and evening. Localized street and nuisance flooding may
be possible within any slow moving showers and thunderstorms, as
is typical in the summer.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   77  95  76  95 /  20  60  10  70
Panama City   79  91  79  91 /  20  50  20  50
Dothan        75  96  75  95 /  20  60  20  60
Albany        77  97  76  95 /  10  40  20  60
Valdosta      77  96  76  97 /  20  50  20  60
Cross City    76  93  76  95 /  20  50  10  60
Apalachicola  80  90  80  90 /  20  50  20  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for
     FLZ007>019-026-027-108-112-114-115-118-127.

GA...None.
AL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ068.

GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Worster
MARINE...KR
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Reese