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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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760 FXUS62 KTAE 160707 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 307 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 306 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 A bit of troughing over the southeast CONUS along with ample moisture will allow for more scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms across the area today. The highest coverage is expected across Florida counties along the seabreeze, but additional activity is also expected across the region. A few storms could be on the stronger side with gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall, but widespread severe weather is not expected. Highs today are forecast in the low to mid 90s with max heat indices in the 105 to 108 degree range. Once again opting to hold off on a heat advisory at this point, since chances seem kind of borderline and there`s some uncertainty with the initial onset and coverage of showers and thunderstorms. An earlier start with decent coverage could preclude most areas from reaching the 108 mark. Lows overnight are forecast generally in the mid to upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 306 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Shower and thunderstorm chances remain elevated through the middle of the week. This is thanks to an H5 trough over the eastern half of the country keeping the heart of the ridge over the Atlantic Ocean. Ample moisture in place, as illustrated by precipitable water values (PWATs) above the 75th percentile, or 2", and the expected slow- moving nature of the showers/storms means localized flooding could be an issue both Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Temperatures should climb into the lower to middle 90s before any showers/storms develop. Overnight lows are forecast to dip into the middle to upper 70s, which is above normal for mid-July. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 306 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Not a whole lot of change is expected later this week and into the weekend. As a result, rain chances will remain pretty healthy, in the 60 to 70 percent range, each afternoon through Sunday. The H5 ridge in the Atlantic will strengthen and retrograde a bit over the region early next week. This should lead to slightly lower rain chances early next week. However, there are some indications of an inverted trough moving over Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico near the end of the period; this may keep elevated rain chances in the forecast early next week. Very summer-like temperatures are expected with highs in the lower to middle 90s and lows in the middle to upper 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 113 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Showers and a few storms still ongoing tonight should continue to dissipate over the next couple of hours. Some fog will be possible overnight, particularly in areas that got a good bit of rain. Another round of scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected today. Outside of overnight fog and daytime convection, VFR conditions are expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 306 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Favorable marine conditions continue the rest of the week. Light to moderate southwesterly to southerly winds are expected through Saturday before turning more southeasterly early next week. Seas will generally run less than 2 feet. Shower and thunderstorm chances are in the forecast, especially in the early morning hours, the next several days. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 306 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area as a very warm and moist air mass remains in place. There are no fire weather concerns at this time. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 306 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Ample moisture hangs out over the region this week, keeping elevated chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Localized street and nuisance flooding may be possible within any slow moving showers and thunderstorms, as is typical in the summer. No riverine flooding is expected in the next 7 to 10 days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 94 76 93 76 / 70 30 70 20 Panama City 91 80 91 80 / 50 20 70 30 Dothan 94 75 94 75 / 60 30 70 30 Albany 93 76 94 76 / 60 20 60 20 Valdosta 94 76 94 76 / 60 30 70 20 Cross City 93 76 92 76 / 70 30 70 20 Apalachicola 89 79 89 80 / 50 30 60 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Merrifield SHORT TERM...Reese LONG TERM....Reese AVIATION...Merrifield MARINE...Reese FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield HYDROLOGY...Reese