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Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
911 FXUS01 KWBC 072045 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 PM EDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 00Z Mon Jul 08 2024 - 00Z Wed Jul 10 2024 ...Tropical Storm Beryl expected to re-intensify to hurricane strength and make landfall on the central Texas coast early on Monday; very heavy rain and gusty winds expected to spread well inland through the next couple of days... ...Extreme heat becomes less intense in California but continues in the Desert Southwest and interior Pacific Northwest; more heat and humidity for the Mid-Atlantic as well.... ...Focus of severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall in Oklahoma into this evening will give way to heavy tropical downpours associated with Beryl tracking up eastern Texas... ...Critical Fire Weather over portions of southern Utah... After reorganizing over the western Gulf of Mexico, Tropical storm Beryl is poised to regain hurricane strength as it begins to track more northward toward the central Texas coastline. Heavy showers and thunderstorms associated with the outer rainbands of Beryl have already moved onshore into eastern Texas this Sunday afternoon. Additional rainbands will likely impact much of coastal Texas with increasingly squally conditions overnight as the core of Beryl approaches the central Texas coast. The National Hurricane Center expects Beryl to re-intensify into hurricane strength by this evening with the possibility for a period of significant intensification as the center of Beryl nears the coast. Residents in the affected areas should be ready to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials when prompted to do so. Following landfall, Beryl is forecast to continue tracking northward across eastern Texas on Monday with very heavy tropical downpours and squally conditions spreading from south to north through Monday, along with a chance for isolated tornadoes. Total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches with localized amounts of 15 inches are expected near and just east of the track of Beryl through Monday night. Highest amounts are expected near the coast. The heavy rainfall will likely produce areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally considerable. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding is also expected. As Beryl tracks farther inland, it will come into increasing interaction with an upper-level trough over the mid-section of the country and will begin to lose tropical characteristics Monday night. The upper trough will also turn Beryl toward the northeast across Arkansas on Tuesday as Beryl becomes extratropical. Some gusty winds can be expected as extratropical Beryl tracks across Arkansas toward the Mid-Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. A period of heavy rain can also be expected just north of Beryl`s tracks. Meanwhile, the extremely dangerous heat wave in the West is forecast to continue and expand across the Northwest and into the Northern High Plains over the next few days. Dozens of daily record temperatures are forecast to be tied or broken into the work week. Highs in the 100s to 110s and lows in the 70s will be 15-30 degree above normal. The multi-day nature of the heat and record warm overnight temperatures will cause heat stress to build in people without adequate cooling and hydration. In addition to the heat, dry and windy conditions over parts of southern Utah will contribute to a Critical Fire Weather Risk today. The intense heat is forecast to get less intense across the Central Valley of California through the next couple of days as highs are forecast to stay below 110 by Tuesday but afternoon temperatures will remain well into the 100s. Meanwhile, highs are forecast to top 110 degrees on Tuesday at the hottest locations in interior Pacific Northwest with 120 degrees remain within reach in the Desert Southwest. The digging upper trough over the central U.S. that eventually lifts Beryl across the Mid-South will push a surface cold front south through the central Plains into this evening. Severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall associated with clusters of convection will remain a concern into tonight. A slight chance of flash flooding will also extend northeast across the Midwest through tonight. In addition, scattered thunderstorms will also move across many areas of the northern Plains and upper Midwest, as well as across the Mid-Atlantic and into the Southeast through the next couple of days. Isolated instances of flash flooding cannot be ruled out in these areas. Kong/Kebede Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$