378
FXUS65 KSLC 282033
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
233 PM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Mostly dry and increasingly hot conditions are
expected to continue into early next week, with moisture
increasing for the middle of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Monday)...Seeing a generally dry zonal
flow across Utah and southwest Wyoming this afternoon that is
keeping temperatures on the mild side. Maxes today are running up
to 5F above seasonal normals, similar to slightly less warm
compared to yesterday. A broad trough due north of the area is
allowing a bit of shortwave energy to eject into northern Utah,
providing enough instability to produce some high based showers
over the Uintas, with little if any precipitation hitting the
ground.

Persistence will be a good forecast for tomorrow with the zonal
flow keeping temperature advection roughly neutral. Will again see
just enough moisture and instability for the possibility of
showers over the highest terrain. The trough to our north will
exit to the east, allowing high pressure over the Great Basin to
start to amplify.

.LONG TERM (After 12z Monday), Issued 407 AM MDT...Long term
forecast period begins with a ridge of high pressure extending
through the Four Corners region and a somewhat cutoff lobe of a
trough coming ashore on the California coast. H7 temps of around
16C to 19C associated with the ridge will drive anomalously high
temperatures at the surface as well, with afternoon highs areawide
running about 7-15F above climatological normal. While still
seemingly insufficient to require heat related headlines, those
spending much time outdoors should be sure to stay well hydrated,
take breaks as needed, and have ways to cool down. With the
approaching trough, the area will also see a gradual increase to
southerly flow, and in turn some increase in lower end available
moisture. The strong subsidence of the ridge should suppress most
activity, but CAMs continue to show some amount of isolated
convective development as this moisture increases, especially off
of the higher terrain. With the initial moisture surge pretty
limited and more mid level in nature, anticipate any convection
would be pretty high based and generally limit more significant
rainfall concerns (though those going to/near rain sensitive areas
should still remain weather aware), while posing a more modest
threat of gusty outflow winds.

The aforementioned synoptic features remain the primary influences
upon Tuesday`s weather as well. Temperatures don`t change too
significantly, maybe a couple degrees upwards at areas north and a
couple degrees downward at areas south, but overall another above
normal day. With the continued moisture tap, ensembles support a
slight uptick to available moisture though, so may see a
corresponding slight increase in daytime convective coverage.

Wednesday into Thursday will see the coastal trough begin to make
more of a push into the Great Basin with subsequent ejection
northward through the forecast region and back into the primary
longwave pattern. Monsoonal moisture push will be more marked
each of these days, so with the increasing influence of the trough
in combination with daytime heating, anticipate convection to
become a bit more widespread. Additionally, the trough will help
introduce effective shear on the order of 20-30 kts or so
Wednesday, which will aid in a bit more organization to
convection. Wouldn`t be surprised to see a stronger storm or two
develop, and with the additional moisture, could see more of a
localized heavy rain threat at those typically sensitive areas
(slot canyons, typically dry washes, slickrock areas, burn scars).
Shear will lessen and moisture will decrease a bit for the
western portions of Utah Thursday, but still remain elevated
enough to result in scattered convective development especially
along/east of the high terrain. With the trough/moisture and
associated increase in precip/cloud cover, temps will trend
downwards Wednesday and Thursday.

Less confidence noted deeper into the forecast, but model guidance
continues to show loose consensus on some sort of secondary trough
digging into a similar area Friday/Saturday that initial trough
started off at earlier in the week. Pattern doesn`t look as
supportive of a more robust continuation of monsoonal type moisture
advection, and ensemble PWAT anomalies dip accordingly, but still
appears enough moisture remains that daytime heating will have
potential to kick off some isolated convection. As such, those
planning on hosting or attending any July 4th festivities will want
to at least keep an eye on trends in the forecast as well as the
eventual evolution of the weather Friday. While still mild, temps
look to be a bit more reasonable with afternoon highs forecast near
normal to around 5F above normal across the southern half of the
area, and around 5F-10F above normal across the northern half.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions continue today and tonight with
light winds mostly below 10kts. Afternoon cumulus should remain far
removed from the terminal to the southwest and southeast, with a
very low chance (10%) of thicker clouds and possibly outflow gusts 3-
6Z moving in from the west this evening. Otherwise, light northwest
winds should turn southeast between 2-7Z, with a low chance (25%) of
remaining northwesterly through the overnight hours.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail
across the airspace outside of areas downstream of large wildfires
in the south. For those isolated areas (e.g. BCE) overnight
stability will again allow for smoke to drive localized IFR/LIFR
conditions. High pressure continues to dominate the area with weak
gradients allowing terrain-driven and thermally-driven flows to
dominate, with a slight increase in afternoon cumulus buildups over
the higher terrain Sunday in comparison to Saturday (mostly east of
I-15).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Mild and generally dry conditions will persist into
early next week. Temperatures tomorrow will be similar to today,
about 5F above seasonal normals for highs, with highs warming to
around 10F above seasonal normals by Tuesday. A small amount of
high based moisture will allow for some afternoon showers over the
higher terrain capable of producing gusty and erratic winds. The
threat of showers and storms will increase Wednesday into Thursday
as monsoonal moisture moves into the area. Though some storms will
produce wetting rains, the primary threat with storms that develop
will be gusty winds and lightning. Some drying is possible by
Independence Day.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan
LONG TERM...Warthen
AVIATION...Van Cleave

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity