Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
968 FXUS65 KSLC 112135 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 335 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS...A prolonged stretch of hot and dry conditions continues into next week. Chances for isolated high-based showers and thunderstorms in the southern mountains return from Monday forward. && .DISCUSSION...An area of high pressure will dominate the overall pattern across the western US into early next week, resulting in a prolonged duration of above-normal heat. Near-average temperatures today tempers HeatRisk across a majority of the region except southern Utah, where areas of Moderate HeatRisk have emerged. Moderate HeatRisk becomes widespread across Utah and southwest Wyoming by Saturday, continuing through early next week. Some localized areas of Major HeatRisk emerge Sunday and Monday across warmest valleys of southern Utah, including St. George and portions of Lake Powell. If you plan to spend time outside this weekend, make sure to stay hydrated and take breaks in the shade or air conditioning often. The ridge axis shifts offshore on Monday, which will allow modest moisture transport into the region. PWAT values gradually climb to around 0.6-0.7" on Monday, with strong surface heating sparking afternoon convection. As such, daily afternoon thunderstorm chances return Monday, continuing trough the remainder of the week. Coverage will be quite isolated and mainly tied to higher terrain as little synoptic forcing will be in place. A shortwave trough deepening along the west coast will introduce better dynamics over the region, which may lead to more widespread shower and thunderstorm chances in addition to increased afternoon winds through the end of the work week. && .AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions will persist for the KSLC terminal through the period. Dry weather with clear skies will continue with typical diurnal wind switches from north this afternoon to south tonight and back to north on Saturday. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will persist for the entire airspace through the period. Dry weather and clear skies will continue. Winds will become largely light and terrain driven as high pressure builds into the area. && .FIRE WEATHER...Temperatures remain near climatological normals today, but are expected to nudge several degrees above average this weekend and into early next week as high pressure strengthens across Utah. This heat will be complimented by very dry conditions, with daytime relative humidity values in the single digits to low teens across the state, in addition to poor overnight humidity recoveries. Worst overnight recoveries are expected through Tuesday morning, with the main areas of concern across southwestern Utah and the West Desert, with recoveries between 25-35%, and eastern Utah, with recoveries between 20-25%. The area of high pressure moves slightly west Sunday into Monday, which will allow modest mid-level moisture to sneak into the southern half of Utah. As such, chances for afternoon high-based showers and isolated thunderstorms increase on Monday afternoon, remaining a daily feature through the remainder of the week. A weather system dropping down the west coast on Wednesday brings increasing instability and thus increasing coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms through the latter half of the week. We will also see slight improvement in overnight humidity recoveries from Wednesday morning through the remainder of the week as a result, but overall, not enough to sideline fire weather concerns. Chances for wetting rains from showers and thunderstorms next week remains low, so the main concern will be lightning and gusty and erratic outflow winds, especially after a long stretch of hot and dry conditions. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ Whitlam/Church For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity