864
FXUS64 KSJT 061845
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
145 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 420 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...Cooler today, with isolated to scattered convection possible
this afternoon...

Low level flow will be from the east/southeast today, which will
result in cooler temperatures across the area. In fact,
temperatures today will be near or slightly below normal for this
time of year, with afternoon highs mainly in the lower 90s,
although a few mid 90s will occur across the Concho Valley.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
primarily this afternoon during peak heating, with the best chance
across our southern counties. Convection will end by early
evening, with dry conditions expected overnight. Lows tonight will
be in the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

The next chance for some precipitation will develop across the Big
Country Sunday night as another cold front is poised to track
across the area Sunday evening into Monday. Models continue to
show this feature coinciding with an upper-level shortwave trough
tracking across the region Monday, which can aid in the
development of some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
from Sunday evening through Monday night. Meanwhile, models
continue to keep the remnants of Tropical Storm Beryl mostly to
our east after the system makes landfall over the Texas Gulf
Coast. This track will likely lead to the bulk of significant
precipitation staying east of our area, and less precipitation for
much of West Central Texas. The NBM has continued to trend
precipitation chances down for Tuesday through Thursday, although
we cannot rule out a few showers and storms developing along or
over our eastern most counties.

As for temperatures across the area, slightly cooler conditions
are possible for Monday and Tuesday after the passage of the cold
front, ranging in the mid 80s to mid 90s. Temperatures will then
climb back into the 90s and triple digits by the end of the week
and into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon across the southern third of our area, with isolated
convection farther north into the Concho Valley and Heartland.
Localized gusty winds are possible in the showers and storms and
with outflow boundaries emanating from the convection. Brief
visibility and ceiling reductions are possible in the locally heavy
rain accompanying the showers and storms. The KSOA and KJCT TAF
sites are most likely to be affected, and carrying Tempo groups for
those sites this afternoon. Mostly clear skies are expected tonight
and Sunday. Patchy low cloud development could occur 12Z-15Z
Sunday over parts of the I-10 corridor, and this could potentially
result in MVFR ceilings at KSOA and KJCT. Southeast winds will
veer to south overnight. Increased south or south-southwest winds
are expected by mid-to-late morning Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     73  98  72  89 /  10   0  20  30
San Angelo  73 101  74  96 /  20   0  10  20
Junction    72  97  72  93 /  20  10   0  10
Brownwood   71  96  72  90 /  10  10  10  20
Sweetwater  74 100  73  89 /  10  10  20  30
Ozona       71  97  73  94 /  20   0   0  10
Brady       71  94  72  89 /  20   0   0  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...19