844
FXUS64 KSJT 201101
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
601 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Early this morning skies were mostly clear with mild temperatures in
the mid 70s.  A somewhat humid airmass was in place, characterized
by dewpoints in the 60s.

A broad upper level trough located over the Midwest and sprawling
southwestward through the southern Plains will be the main driver of
the the weather today through tonight.  High temperatures this
afternoon should climb to the upper 90s and, with dewpoints in the
low 60s, should allow instability values of 1500-2000 J/kg to
develop. Models show an upper level impulse, possibly an MCV from
yesterday evening`s thunderstorms, rotating through the upper
trough and into the Big Country this afternoon. This, along with
the instability, should help to spawn a southward-moving line of
thunderstorms around the I-20 corridor this afternoon. The main
concerns with this activity will be locally heavy rain, given PWAT
values of 1.5-2 inches, but some gusty winds are possible with
any storm that develops. Storms should die off by midnight as
instability subsides and give way to another mild night in the
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Numerous showers and thunderstorms expected Sunday into Monday as
an upper trough replaces upper ridging, and weak cold front moves
into the region and washes out. Localized flooding possible as
storms will be slow moving and precipital waters increase to the
1.5 to 2 inch range. Tuesday, the main focus for storm development
will shift south of the Big Country, and for the Wednesday into
Friday time period...along/southeast of a Sonora to Brownwood
line. Storms and clouds will keep temperatures down, particularly
Monday and Tuesdays, where highs are expected to be mainly in the
80s. Temperatures warm back into the 90s in the Big Country and
Concho Valley the rest of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

VFR conditions with southerly winds through tonight. Chances for
storms will increase near Abilene and Sweetwater by mid afternoon
then around San Angelo and Brady by early evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     97  72  92  70 /  30  20  50  40
San Angelo  99  74  93  70 /  10  20  60  40
Junction    97  73  94  71 /  10  10  50  20
Brownwood   96  72  92  70 /  20  20  40  40
Sweetwater  99  72  93  70 /  30  30  50  50
Ozona       95  72  91  70 /  10  10  50  40
Brady       95  72  92  70 /  10  10  40  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...SK