Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
113 FXUS64 KSJT 171044 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 544 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 355 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Early this morning, a complex of thunderstorms was over northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. this complex has sent an outflow boundary south to near the Red River. This outflow boundary/composite cold front will continue south into our area today and will be the main focus for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms mainly along and south of I-20 this afternoon and evening. The threat for severe weather is very low, but the storms will produce dangerous lightning, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. Going with low chance Pops across the northern 2/3 of the area. For tonight, especially after midnight, another weak upper level disturbance may bring isolated to widely scattered storms to the northern half of the area. Another hot day with highs in the mid 90s to around 102. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 355 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 From Thursday into this weekend, the upper level ridge currently centered roughly over the Four Corners area will gradually shift to the northwest while broad troughing develops from the Great Lakes area south/southwest into the southern plains. Temperatures are expected to continue to be near or slightly warmer than normal through Saturday with highs in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees. However, there will be a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday night as convection may develop off of surface boundaries laid down by convection from Wednesday and Wednesday night. Expect generally dry weather on Friday with hot temperatures. By Saturday afternoon/evening, upper level troughing is expected to begin spreading south/southwestward into the southern plains. Convection will develop off of a frontal boundary to the north of the area and move south toward west central Texas, potentially pushing a hybrid outflow/frontal boundary into our area by Saturday night or Sunday morning. The upper level trough is expected to remain over the area through Tuesday. With the trough and boundary near the area, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through early next week, although our best chances for widespread coverage will be Sunday into Monday. With rich moisture available for these storms, the main concerns will be locally heavy rainfall along with dangerous lightning. The trough combined with rain chances should also result in cooler temperatures, keeping highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s for most areas Sunday through Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 543 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. The Hi-Res models are indicating isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms mainly south of I-20 during the late afternoon and evening hours Wednesday. Conditions will be more favorable for convection due to better instability and a wind shift/cool front moving through. Have added thunder for a few hours at the KSJT/KBBD terminals and low confidence for the other terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 99 73 93 71 / 20 30 50 10 San Angelo 102 75 96 71 / 20 20 60 20 Junction 99 74 95 71 / 10 10 60 20 Brownwood 99 73 93 69 / 30 30 50 10 Sweetwater 99 73 94 71 / 20 30 40 10 Ozona 96 73 93 71 / 10 10 50 20 Brady 98 73 93 70 / 20 10 60 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...21