905
FXUS64 KSJT 072322
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
622 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday) Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

An upper level ridge will remain over the western CONUS through
Monday. Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast by the National Hurricane
Center to make landfall on the middle Texas coast early Monday
morning, and then move north and weaken to a tropical storm by 7 PM
Monday. With this setup, our area will be under generally north to
northwest flow aloft tonight and Monday. This evening, an embedded
disturbance in the northwest flow aloft is forecast to move into
northwest Texas, and help to initiate showers and thunderstorms.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms should move or develop
south/southeast into the Big Country later this evening into
tonight. Not seeing much of an indication for the showers and storms
to persist overnight however, with the aforementioned disturbance
weakening. Trailing portion of a cold front (associated with an
upper trough gradually shifting east across the northern and central
Plains) will push south across our area late tonight into the day
Monday. Our area will have increased cloud cover overnight and
Monday morning, but skies should become partly cloudy especially
over our western counties in the afternoon. Temperatures will be a
little cooler in our southern counties, but most noticeably cooler
in the Big Country. Highs on Monday are expected to range from the
mid to upper 80s in the Big Country, to the lower/mid 90s in the
Northern Edwards Plateau. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible Monday in our northern and central
counties, but confidence is limited in occurrence and placement.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday) Issued at 158 PM CDT Sun Jul 7
2024

The forecast continues to call for increased shower and thunderstorm
chances Monday night into Tuesday, as a surface cold front
coinciding with a upper-level shortwave trough tracks through West
Central Texas. Models are keying in on these storms possibly
organizing into an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) late Monday
night into early Tuesday morning. The high-res models are showing
this feature developing during the overnight hours Monday night into
early Tuesday morning, south of a Sterling City to Brady line, and
tracking south to southwestward through Tuesday evening. The
remnants of Tropical Storm Beryl and its moisture will stay to our
east as it lifts north across east Texas and the Arklatex region on
Tuesday, so not expecting any effects from it. The NBM has continued
to trend precipitation chances down Wednesday into Thursday,
although cannot rule out a few showers and storms developing across
southern sections during the afternoon hours. Dry conditions are
expected Friday into next weekend.

Temperatures across the area will be cooler for Tuesday behind the
front and with increased cloud cover and precipitation chances, with
highs ranging from the upper 80s to mid 90s. Temperatures are then
expected to trend back upward into the 90s and triple digits by the
end of the week and into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

VFR conditions currently present at all terminals. East/southeast
winds will decrease in the coming hours, generally becoming light
and variable overnight. A complex of storms currently between
KLBB and the TX/NM border may impact our northern counties later
this evening into the overnight hours. However confidence in this
activity extending down to KABI still remains rather low so have
continued with the PROB30 from the previous package. A cold front
is expected to move through the area overnight causing winds to
shift to a more north/northeasterly direction with gusts
increasing for our northern sites (KABI, KSJT, KBBD) by late
morning/early afternoon. More showers and storms will be possible
again tomorrow afternoon but confidence in location precludes a
mention for most sites apart from a PROB30 for KABI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     70  87  70  91 /  20  30  10  10
San Angelo  71  92  71  94 /  10  20  30  30
Junction    71  92  71  92 /   0  10  30  30
Brownwood   70  88  69  90 /  10  30  10  10
Sweetwater  71  85  69  91 /  20  30  20  20
Ozona       72  95  70  91 /   0  10  30  30
Brady       71  90  71  90 /   0  20  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...50