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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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890 FXUS64 KSJT 072014 CCC AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 307 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 An upper level ridge will remain over the western CONUS through Monday. Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to make landfall on the middle Texas coast early Monday morning, and then move north and weaken to a tropical storm by 7 PM Monday. With this setup, our area will be under generally north to northwest flow aloft tonight and Monday. This evening, an embedded disturbance in the northwest flow aloft is forecast to move into northwest Texas, and help to initiate showers and thunderstorms. Isolated to scattered showers and storms should move or develop south/southeast into the Big Country later this evening into tonight. Not seeing much of an indication for the showers and storms to persist overnight however, with the aforementioned disturbance weakening. Trailing portion of a cold front (associated with an upper trough gradually shifting east across the northern and central Plains) will push south across our area late tonight into the day Monday. Our area will have increased cloud cover overnight and Monday morning, but skies should become partly cloudy especially over our western counties in the afternoon. Temperatures will be a little cooler in our southern counties, but most noticeably cooler in the Big Country. Highs on Monday are expected to range from the mid to upper 80s in the Big Country, to the lower/mid 90s in the Northern Edwards Plateau. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday in our northern and central counties, but confidence is limited in occurrence and placement. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Sunday) Issued at 158 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 The forecast continues to call for increased shower and thunderstorm chances Monday night into Tuesday, as a surface cold front coinciding with a upper-level shortwave trough tracks through West Central Texas. Models are keying in on these storms possibly organizing into an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. The high-res models are showing this feature developing during the overnight hours Monday night into early Tuesday morning, south of a Sterling City to Brady line, and tracking south to southwestward through Tuesday evening. The remnants of Tropical Storm Beryl and its moisture will stay to our east as it lifts north across east Texas and the Arklatex region on Tuesday, so not expecting any effects from it. The NBM has continued to trend precipitation chances down Wednesday into Thursday, although cannot rule out a few showers and storms developing across southern sections during the afternoon hours. Dry conditions are expected Friday into next weekend. Temperatures across the area will be cooler for Tuesday behind the front and with increased cloud cover and precipitation chances, with highs ranging from the upper 80s to mid 90s. Temperatures are then expected to trend back upward into the 90s and triple digits by the end of the week and into next weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Skies will be generally clear over the area this afternoon and early evening. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to move or develop into the Big Country from the northwest and north this evening into tonight. Generally southeast winds this afternoon will become east tonight. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Monday, in our northern counties in the morning, and across our northern and central counties in the afternoon. Winds will become north-northeast Monday with passage of a cold front. Low cloud development (with MVFR ceilings) is expected in the early to mid-morning hours Monday, over our northern and eastern counties. Cloud ceilings will climb over 3000ft in the 15Z-17Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 70 87 70 91 / 20 30 10 10 San Angelo 71 92 71 94 / 10 20 30 30 Junction 71 92 71 92 / 0 10 30 30 Brownwood 70 88 69 90 / 10 30 10 10 Sweetwater 71 85 69 91 / 20 30 20 20 Ozona 72 95 70 91 / 0 10 30 30 Brady 71 90 71 90 / 0 20 20 30 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....TP AVIATION...19