914
FXUS64 KSHV 140251
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
951 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 951 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

The evening upper air analysis indicated that a weak shear axis
still lingers across Deep E TX/NCntrl LA, with much of the
scattered convection having diminished by early evening with the
loss of heating. However, the mosaic radar imagery still indicates
isolated -SHRA persisting just W of LFK and over SE Union, Nrn
Ouachita, and Caldwell Parishes in NE LA, and for that reason,
have extended slight chance pops through 06Z Sunday for these
areas with the expectation that these will diminish over the next
hour or so. Otherwise, elevated cigs will persist overnight near
this shear axis, which will hold temps up over much of the region.
The current min temps forecast in the lower to mid 70s still
looks to be in good shape, and thus, no changes were needed.

Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast is in good shape, with
additional mainly afternoon scattered convection again developing
near this weakness aloft especially over Deep E TX/NCntrl LA.

Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

For the 14/00Z TAFs, scattered areas of showers in deep east Texas
and north central Louisiana continue to diminish as of this hour,
but impacts from RA and TS remain possible at area terminals,
primarily KLFK and KMLU, through the 14/03Z hour. Along with
showers and storms, cloud decks look to dissipate into the
evening, leaving SCT to BKN mid to high level cloud decks through
the post midnight and predawn hours. Tomorrow will see similar
conditions as today, with redeveloping Cu field in the midmorning
and scattered showers and thunderstorms after 14/18Z, primarily
along and south of the I-20 corridor. Southwesterly winds will
remain relatively light throughout, at sustained speeds not much
exceeding 5 kts, and limited gusts, if any.

/26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  93  77  97 /   5  30  20  20
MLU  75  93  74  96 /  20  40  20  20
DEQ  71  93  72  95 /   0  10  10  10
TXK  76  95  76  97 /   0  20  20  10
ELD  72  93  73  96 /  10  20  20  20
TYR  75  95  76  96 /   0  20  20  10
GGG  74  93  74  95 /   0  20  20  10
LFK  73  92  74  94 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
AVIATION...26