499
FXUS64 KSHV 091950
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
250 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Remnants of Beryl continue to quickly race northeast and out of
the region, leaving behind a drier atmospheric column in the wake
of the once tropical storm. This, along with sfc high pressure
moving across the ArkLaTex this afternoon, will help suppress rain
chances temporarily before better chances return by the end of
the week. For now though, a quiet short term is expected with a
gradual increase in maxT`s as we see low to mid 90`s favor the
region. Overnight lows in the low to mid 70`s will follow the
gradual warming trend.

Though confidence is low, a boundary that will become trapped along
the Louisiana Gulf Coast will support afternoon convection south
of the region. Not ruling out a stray shower sneaking into the
extreme southern tier of the FA in the short term, but overall
confidence is minimal at this time. Widespread probs return in the
long term period.

RK

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

By Friday, and heading into the weekend, not only will temperatures
remain in the mid to upper 90`s, but rain chances are progged to
return for more of the area. Seabreeze convection will remain for
Friday afternoon across the southern zones, before afternoon
diurnally driven pop up showers and thunderstorms across the I-20
corridor become the primary convective theme. This will carry
through the the weekend as GOM moisture advects further north
when compared to previous days.


Not only will additional moisture support afternoon thunderstorm
chances, but will also help to increase heat indices locally. Friday
is shaping up to be the first day back to heat index values above
100 deg F for many, with values climbing to near 105 deg F
through the upcoming weekend. Buying that trends continue to
advertise this, it will be possible that heat products will be
needed through the weekend and potentially as far as into early
next week.

RK

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

As the remnants of Beryl continue to move to the northeast, VFR
conditions will prevail across most of the sites. KELD/KMLU may
see brief MVFR ceilings for a couple of hours before clouds
completely scatter out. No additional concerns are expected the
rest of the day with west/northwest winds between 10-15 kt and
gusts up to 20 kt. Winds will become variable/light tonight and
may result in reduced visibilities, especially across the
northern sites. Otherwise, VFR and light northerly winds will
persist on Wednesday with passing high clouds.

Sanchez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  94  74  95 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  69  93  71  94 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  66  91  68  93 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  70  94  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  67  92  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  72  94  72  94 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  69  93  71  94 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  69  93  71  94 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...17