517
FXUS64 KSHV 141149
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
649 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Top of the hour readings at 3am are all in the 70s and not much
wind except at a handful of sites, most of which are prevailing
southwest. Many sites with calm are also near saturation and we
have some patchy fog around now that will likely wait on a couple
hours of daylight to disperse, so we have an early to mid morning
mention. We have seen an increase on moisture content and that
will not bode well for the new work week with Heat headlines
likely back in the picture. Today we will see lower 100s for most
calculations with a handful of zones around 105 and isolated
higher. Not quite widespread enough today to warrant a heat
advisory today, but tomorrow numbers grow hotter with less clouds
in the new week.

For today we still have a swath of cloudiness in deepening
southwest flow aloft descending from the top down. Our pwat
remains elevated with 1.85" on our 00Z flight last evening. So we
will go with the models again painting QPF across our Four-State
area from deep east TX into NE LA. Generally running under the
cloudiness. So we should be fairly similar to yesterday maxs,
maybe a tad hotter for our I-30 corridor. This is where our
highest HI calculations can be found today where more sunshine is
expected. Otherwise, the upper trough of late will fill and slowly
ease off to the east, allowing our heights to rise as the upper
high over the front range expands over the southern plains. The
weakness currently aloft or shear axis if you will, will be
shunted to the SE over the next day or so, thinning the convection
along the way to more isolated coverage to start the new work
week. Our temps will vary today, but more uniform mid and
eventually upper 90s will lock in for a while. Lows will be
warming a tad too this week. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

So the sea breeze activity of late will keep farther to the south
and only allow for slight chance wording across our southern most
counties and parishes. Thus the warmer trend to start the week
and hotter temps returning for a little while. Mid to late week
will see another cool air mass dropping in the upper MS River
Valley early on Wednesday. The core of this 1024mb high will edge
into the Dakotas and settle into the midWest and northern plains
by early Thursday. This will start to pool the moisture and bring
back the clouds and decent rain chances for us by late week. So
thankfully the heat headlines will be short lived this week.

Our next cool front late week will backdoor in more this time
around and our heights aloft will drop off again with a 586dam low
in the base of a new trough that will hang around for a while as
the first air mass is reinforced with another 1025mb core over
WI/IL, extending eastward across the New England states by the
weekend. So this is looking good for mid to late July for many
locales including us as over the weekend, a deepening upper low
will replace the northern surface high pressure with widespread
convection over much of the country. The WPC starts to drop their
EROs back our way by late week and next weekend, another 586dam
low will drop in over OK by this time next week. So we may look
much the same to wrap up the month with slightly cooler and wetter
conditions than normal as the Climate Prediction Center confirms
for us on their 8-14 day outlook. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

For the 14/12 TAF period, scattered to broken mid and high level
clouds are observed across the SE half of our airspace early this
morning with VFR conditions largely prevailing. Minor vsby impacts
are noted at ELD due to patchy fog, but this will quickly improve
shortly after daybreak. Otherwise, look for a cu field to develop
once again today with some isolated to widely scattered convection
possible during the afternoon. For now, have only included VCTS
at MLU as a weak upper-level disturbance continues to drift over
our eastern airspace. Light and variable winds this morning will
trend more S/SW between 5-10 kts later today and relax slightly
this evening/overnight.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  76  97  77 /  30  10  10   0
MLU  93  75  96  76 /  40  10  30  10
DEQ  94  72  96  73 /  10  10  10   0
TXK  95  74  97  76 /  10   0  10   0
ELD  91  72  96  74 /  20  10  20   0
TYR  94  76  96  76 /  10  10   0   0
GGG  92  75  96  74 /  20  10  10   0
LFK  92  74  94  73 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...19