914
FXUS64 KSHV 111551
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1051 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1036 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Aside from the initiation of a cumulus field across Toledo Bend
within the last 30-40 minutes, clear skies are present on latest
satellite imagery across much of the ArkLaTex. This is expected to
expand northward, in a similar fashion to yesterday, through the
afternoon. At the same time, diurnally driven thunderstorms, which
will be enhanced by a stalled sfc boundary near the Louisiana
coast, are expected to develop later this afternoon, mainly south
of the FA. Many convection-allowing and hi-res models are not
entirely sold on the idea of scattered showers and storms across
the southern zones. As a result, elected to hold the SChc PoPs,
and have trimmed back the northern extent of the coverage.

Aside from this, temperatures are quickly racing into
the upper 80`s and low to mid 90`s. As of 10:45 AM CDT, the SHV
ASOS was 93 deg F. Given the quick jump in morning sfc heating,
and spread of 2-4 deg F in the hourly trends, elected to increase
maxT`s a degree or two for the afternoon.

RK

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 203 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Surface high pressure to prevail across the region today allowing
for light winds areawide. An upper-level trough extending from the
Great Lakes southward across the midwest will allow for increased
instability areawide. However, with a lack of available moisture,
mainly dry conditions to prevail areawide with the exception of a
few seabreeze generated showers and thunderstorms mainly south of
I-20 during the late afternoon hours. With increased mixing due
to the prevailing upper-trough aloft, temperatures will again
remain seasonably normal with highs in the mid 90s.

Under mostly clear skies tonight, overnight lows to range from the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

A surface low retrograding west into the Carolinas will elongate
allowing for a surface trough to extend across the northern Gulf
Coast on Friday. Surface boundary combined with prevailing upper-
trough will allow for slightly higher rain chances mainly south of
I-20 on Friday. Afternoon highs on Friday to again average in the
mid 90s. /05/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 203 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Upper-level ridge to gradually build across the region through
the weekend gradually eroding the upper-trough. Diurnal
convection to gradually diminish each day, becoming nearly non-
existent by Tuesday except for slight chances across portions of
north Louisiana along a weakness along the southern periphery of
the upper-ridge.

As the ridge rebuilds from Sunday onward, afternoon high
temperatures will creep to near 100 degrees across much of north
Louisiana and south Arkansas with slightly lesser values
elsewhere across the ArkLaTex. The combination of hot
temperatures and elevated relative humidity values will allow for
heat index values to climb to dangerous levels as early as
Saturday across portions of the ArkLaTex with heat headlines
expected through the remainder of the long-term period ending
Thursday. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

For the 11/12Z TAF period, VFR vis/cigs are expected through the
period with some afternoon Cu fields likely to redevelop airspace-
wide as southerly surface winds gradually return, yet remain
fairly light. /16/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  98  76  97  77 /  10   0  20  10
MLU  96  72  96  73 /  10   0  10   0
DEQ  93  69  94  70 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  97  72  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  95  71  96  71 /  10   0  10   0
TYR  96  73  94  75 /  10   0  10   0
GGG  96  73  94  74 /  10   0  20   0
LFK  95  73  93  74 /  20   0  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...16