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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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983 FXUS64 KSHV 121616 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1116 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1110 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Warmup is going well, just as expected with a descent cu field expected later today across much of the Four State Region. 16z temperatures are already in the lower 90s across portions of N LA and SW AR and those temperatures will only go up from here. Pops today will mainly be confined areas near and south of the I-20 Corridor given the higher moisture content across these areas. SLight chance and low end chance pops are warranted. All this is well handled in the current forecast so no changes were necessary to temps or pops today. 13 && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday) Issued at 350 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Typical mid-July weather is expected to continue into this weekend as we remain flanked by the upper-level ridge out west across the Four Corners Region and another ridge extending over much of the SE CONUS. Therefore, persistence is generally expected to prevail with near to slightly above average temperatures mostly in the mid 90s and a few isolated areas in the upper 90s. Not surprisingly, this will lead to a return of heat headlines by this weekend with at least some portions of the region likely reaching heat advisory criteria on Saturday as Gulf moisture continues to push dew points higher. Likewise, overnight temperatures will also trend warmer as well with mostly lower to mid 70s areawide. As for rain chances, they will be diurnally driven and limited to our far southern zones this afternoon during peak heating hours. Slightly higher chances are expected on Saturday with a stronger sea breeze push, possibly allowing for isolated convection as far north as the I-20 corridor. However, the main weather story will continue to be the building heat and humidity through the weekend and beyond into next week. /19/ && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 350 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Continuing with the weather theme in the short-term, look for heat headlines to expand across more of the region by late this weekend into early next week. Rain chances remain limited with isolated to widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible on Sunday before largely diminishing by early to mid next week as the upper ridge becomes even more dominant. Afternoon high temperatures will generally range in the mid to upper 90s through at least mid week before some relief arrives toward the end of this forecast period. This heat relief is expected to come by way of a rare mid-summer cold front arriving on Thursday. Medium-range model progs are in fairly solid agreement on advancing this front deep into our area through the end of next week with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Additionally, temperatures will return closer to seasonal averages along with drier post-frontal air helping to bring an end to the heat and humidity expected earlier in the week. /19/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR continues for most aside from a brief light BR at a few locales this morning. Calm sfc wind will soon mix down SE around 5KT. Aloft, the SE winds are running at 10-15KT and extend up a few thousand feet, but backs to E/NE abv 5kft. We can expect a good bit of blue sky today with few/sct cu and some passing cirrus today. Convection will keep generally south of I-20 for the next couple of afternoons with a weak sea breeze push in our direction each day. /24/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 98 76 96 77 / 10 0 20 0 MLU 96 74 96 75 / 0 0 20 10 DEQ 94 71 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 97 74 97 75 / 0 0 10 0 ELD 96 72 96 74 / 0 0 20 0 TYR 95 74 94 76 / 0 0 20 0 GGG 95 73 94 75 / 0 0 20 0 LFK 93 74 93 74 / 30 10 40 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...24