648
FXUS64 KSHV 141917
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
217 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1019 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Satellite imagery this morning showcasing what the overnight
model guidance had advertised almost perfectly. This is an axis
of 700-300mb moisture along the southern counties and parishes of
the FA. This is supporting the enhanced cloud coverage across and
south of the southern zones, while a layer of clearing exists
further north in a drier atmospheric column. That being said,
recent imagery is showing the development of an afternoon cumulus
field taking shape. 12z hi-res solutions have have their own
ideas as to how afternoon rain and thunderstorm chances play out.
Steady shear axis overhead may support a few showers and
thunderstorms along the I-20 corridor, while the best probs for
initiation appear to be further south. Given lower confidence,
minor adjustments were made to afternoon PoPs.

Elected to adjust maxT`s by a degree or two given hourly trends
running warmer than the advertised diurnal track. Highs in to mid
90`s are still expected this afternoon.

RK

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Top of the hour readings at 3am are all in the 70s and not much
wind except at a handful of sites, most of which are prevailing
southwest. Many sites with calm are also near saturation and we
have some patchy fog around now that will likely wait on a couple
hours of daylight to disperse, so we have an early to mid morning
mention. We have seen an increase on moisture content and that
will not bode well for the new work week with Heat headlines
likely back in the picture. Today we will see lower 100s for most
calculations with a handful of zones around 105 and isolated
higher. Not quite widespread enough today to warrant a heat
advisory today, but tomorrow numbers grow hotter with less clouds
in the new week.

For today we still have a swath of cloudiness in deepening
southwest flow aloft descending from the top down. Our pwat
remains elevated with 1.85" on our 00Z flight last evening. So we
will go with the models again painting QPF across our Four-State
area from deep east TX into NE LA. Generally running under the
cloudiness. So we should be fairly similar to yesterday maxs,
maybe a tad hotter for our I-30 corridor. This is where our
highest HI calculations can be found today where more sunshine is
expected. Otherwise, the upper trough of late will fill and slowly
ease off to the east, allowing our heights to rise as the upper
high over the front range expands over the southern plains. The
weakness currently aloft or shear axis if you will, will be
shunted to the SE over the next day or so, thinning the convection
along the way to more isolated coverage to start the new work
week. Our temps will vary today, but more uniform mid and
eventually upper 90s will lock in for a while. Lows will be
warming a tad too this week. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

So the sea breeze activity of late will keep farther to the south
and only allow for slight chance wording across our southern most
counties and parishes. Thus the warmer trend to start the week
and hotter temps returning for a little while. Mid to late week
will see another cool air mass dropping in the upper MS River
Valley early on Wednesday. The core of this 1024mb high will edge
into the Dakotas and settle into the midWest and northern plains
by early Thursday. This will start to pool the moisture and bring
back the clouds and decent rain chances for us by late week. So
thankfully the heat headlines will be short lived this week.

Our next cool front late week will backdoor in more this time
around and our heights aloft will drop off again with a 586dam low
in the base of a new trough that will hang around for a while as
the first air mass is reinforced with another 1025mb core over
WI/IL, extending eastward across the New England states by the
weekend. So this is looking good for mid to late July for many
locales including us as over the weekend, a deepening upper low
will replace the northern surface high pressure with widespread
convection over much of the country. The WPC starts to drop their
EROs back our way by late week and next weekend, another 586dam
low will drop in over OK by this time next week. So we may look
much the same to wrap up the month with slightly cooler and wetter
conditions than normal as the Climate Prediction Center confirms
for us on their 8-14 day outlook. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Didn`t make too many changes from the 12z TAF package but did
continue the trend of VCTS with the ELD/MLU terminals through
the remainder of the afternoon and the evening. Cannot rule out
some patchy MVFR vsby restrictions a couple hours prior to
sunrise at mainly the ELD/MLU and LFK terminals but model
time/height cross sections do not support any low cloud cover
concerns through the TAF period. Look or SSW winds generally under
10kts through the remainder of the afternoon, becoming light and
variable to near SSW under 10kts overnight through the end of the
TAF period.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  98  78  98 /  10  10   0   0
MLU  75  97  76  98 /  10  20  10  10
DEQ  73  97  73  96 /  10   0   0   0
TXK  77  98  77  98 /  10  10   0   0
ELD  73  97  74  98 /  10  20   0  10
TYR  77  97  76  96 /  10   0   0   0
GGG  76  96  75  95 /  10   0   0   0
LFK  75  95  74  95 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...13