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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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647 FXUS64 KSHV 122320 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 620 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday Night) Issued at 120 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Higher PWAT values are slowly creeping northward compared to this time yesterday with latest MesoAnalysis showing values near 1.5 inches as far north as the I-20 Corridor in NE TX and just south of the corridor in N LA. This is the leading edge of some slightly higher atmospheric moisture and it`s this ingredient to go along with a persistent upper level shear axis across our region with the end result being small rain chances. Starting to see some isolated activity developing now across Deep East TX into NW LA along this leading edge of higher moisture and will therefore, hold onto small pops this evening across our southern third. This persistent shear axis should result in some elevated cloud cover across at least the southeast half of our region overnight which should tend to hold temperatures up slightly so did stay on the warmer side of MOS guidance concerning overnight low temperatures tonight. Concerning Saturday, the same features are in play and that should allow for more in the way of storm coverage with areas near and mainly south of the I-20 Corridor likely seeing the greatest storm coverage. Pops are oriented from isolated coverage across our northern most zones to high end chance variety across our southern third. Cloud cover and higher rain chances will likely help with temperatures on Saturday as well so again, stayed closer to NBM MOS which suggests more like lower to middle 90s vs upper 90s to near 100 degrees for afternoon high temps on Sat. The higher moisture content does mean higher dewpoints, which means higher humidity and you guessed it, higher Heat Indices. Values should range from the upper 90s to near 104 for Saturday afternoon which is just under Heat Advisory Criteria for Saturday. Held onto evening pops for Sat but most all storm coverage should dissipate the later into the evening we go. Other than rain cooled areas Sat Night, overnight low temperatures should be held up by mid level cloud cover so again, stayed on the higher side of MOS guidance concerning overnight low temperatures Sat Night. 13 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 120 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Sunday looking very similar to Saturday with a slight uptick in convection, again giving the available moisture in place and the persistent 500mb shear axis across Central Texas, through the heart of our region and into the Tenn Valley. Highest pops are most warranted across our eastern half on Sunday but still well in chance category. As we transition into the early and middle part of next week, deterministic progs have altered their pattern change we referred to in yesterday afternoon`s forecast discussion. Instead of a retrograding ridge east of our region moving overhead Tue into Wed of next week, progs now keep the ridge east of our region and therefore, keep us more under the influence of the shear axis, and perhaps eventually, a shortwave trough passage by Thu into Fri of next week. This would be very unusual for the middle of July but we`re all about unusual weather in July after what we experienced with Beryl earlier this week. Needless to say, rain chances should increase substantially by late Wed into Thu and perhaps, a frontal passage during this time. Needless to say given similar output from both the GFS and ECMWF, did not stray too far from NBM temps and pop output for next week. 13 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 613 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 For the 13/00Z TAFs, a few very isolated pockets of thunder tracking northwest towards the I-20 corridor in east Texas look to dissipate quickly after sundown, along with the 5K Cu field which has dominated area skies this afternoon. SCT to BKN mid to high level cloud decks look to remain overnight, however, with the possibility of thinning out in coverage towards daybreak. Returning Cu field expected during the mid-morning, with scattered showers and storms once again in the afternoon hours across our southern counties and parishes. Southerly winds becoming southwesterly will remain relatively light throughout, at sustained speeds not much exceeding 5 kts, and limited gusts, if any. /26/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 77 95 77 94 / 10 30 20 30 MLU 74 96 76 95 / 10 30 20 40 DEQ 70 94 71 93 / 0 20 10 20 TXK 74 96 75 94 / 0 20 20 20 ELD 72 96 73 94 / 0 20 20 30 TYR 74 93 76 93 / 10 30 20 20 GGG 73 93 74 91 / 10 30 20 30 LFK 74 90 74 91 / 20 50 20 30 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...26