953
FXUS64 KSHV 141945
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
245 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Quiet afternoon ongoing across the Four State Region as temperatures
continue to climb into the low to mid 90`s. The chance for a few
thunderstorms exists across the I-20 corridor and south through
sunset and ahead of what looks to be a mostly rain free Monday.
At this time, highest probs are located across the far east and
southeast zones through the afternoon hours of Monday, as the
shear axis looks to be best set in this vicinity during peak
heating. That being said though, these are only SChc PoPs given
confidence at this time, and afternoon hi-res solutions.

Aside from this, mostly clear skies (given any afternoon cumulus
development) will support high temperatures climbing into the mid to
upper 90`s. At the same time, S-SW winds locally will support the
northward advancement of a gulf airmass, that may mix out some
through the early afternoon, but should still allow for Td`s in
the low to mid 70`s. This combined with afternoon maxT`s in the
upper 90`s will support heat indices of at least 105 deg F. As a
result, a Heat Advisory has been issued for the Four State Region
through 8 pm CDT Monday.

Overnight, temperatures will range in the mid to upper 70`s, but
heat indices will back off enough to allow for the Heat Advisory
to expire by the evening. That being said though, heat products
are expected to return as heat indices hold steady through mid-
week.

RK

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

By Tuesday afternoon, a repeat of Monday will likely be taking
shape. Surface high pressure across the northern Gulf of Mexico will
prevail southerly winds locally, helping to keep local Td`s
elevated. Naturally, this will also support heat indices meeting
criteria once again, so heat products will likely be needed.
Afternoon rain chances will be little to none locally, buying that
the afternoon sea breeze remains south of the FA, keeping the
Four State Region parishes and counties dry.

Guidance suggests that heat products look to be necessary through
Wednesday. This should be the last of it for the week as a stronger
sfc high across the FL/AL coast will help to drive sea breeze
convection further inland, while an approaching frontal boundary
from the north supports rain chances late Wednesday, through
early Thursday AM. Additional rain chances continue well into
Thursday and as far as the end of the week as upper level flow
will support persistant troughing across the Four State Region.
This will lead to multiple attempts at measurable daily rainfall,
along with cooler than average temperatures locally.

RK

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Didn`t make too many changes from the 12z TAF package but did
continue the trend of VCTS with the ELD/MLU terminals through
the remainder of the afternoon and the evening. Cannot rule out
some patchy MVFR vsby restrictions a couple hours prior to
sunrise at mainly the ELD/MLU and LFK terminals but model
time/height cross sections do not support any low cloud cover
concerns through the TAF period. Look or SSW winds generally under
10kts through the remainder of the afternoon, becoming light and
variable to near SSW under 10kts overnight through the end of the
TAF period.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  98  78  98 /  10  10   0   0
MLU  75  97  76  98 /  10  20  10  10
DEQ  73  97  73  96 /  10   0   0   0
TXK  77  98  77  98 /  10  10   0   0
ELD  73  97  74  98 /  10  20   0  10
TYR  77  97  76  96 /  10   0   0   0
GGG  76  96  75  95 /  10   0   0   0
LFK  75  95  74  95 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...13