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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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018 FXUS64 KSHV 160301 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1001 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 958 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 The afternoon forecast package remains on track as of the 03Z hour this evening. Skies should remain mostly clear for the majority of the ArkLaTex, allowing low temperatures to drop well into the mid to upper 70s by daybreak. A few areas of fog are possible in sheltered zones torwards dawn, particularly around the Toledo Bend country. Ingested the afternoon and evening temperatures and dew point obs and interpolated through to 12Z. /26/ && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday Night) Issued at 247 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Hazardous heat will continue across the Four State Region through the next 36 hours with little in the way of relief expected from any precipitation that may form. This is due to surface ridging that will linger across the southeast US and the Mississippi River into Texas, maintaining light southerly winds and dew points in the low-to-mid 70s. Temperature maximums will remain in the upper 90s while minimums remain in the mid-to-upper 70s, not much of a reprieve from daytime heat. Heat hazard products are likely to be issued through the middle of this week across the area. Adequate precautions and awareness are encouraged now against the elevated potential for heat illnesses. This includes (and is not limited to) altering outdoor plans, taking frequent breaks if you must be outside, checking the backseat of your vehicle, and knowing the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. /16/ && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 247 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Cooler weather will begin to arrive later this week as a less common summer cold front makes its way into the area. This is due to a fairly robust surface ridge that will make its way south from Canada into the Great Plains/Midwest, allowing somewhat more active northerly flow aloft (and diffluent flow near the Gulf) to instigate more convection along the frontal boundary as it eventually stalls near the Gulf Coast. By this weekend, the convection will become more diurnally driven, producing 1 to 1.5 inches of rainfall in the next week. Overall, this activity will keep temperature maximums/minimums in the lower 90s/lower 70s, slightly (and fortunately) below average for this time of the year. /16/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 VFR conditions will continue this evening through much of the overnight hours tonight, as the scattered cu field is expected to diminish/become SKC by/shortly after 01Z Tuesday. Brief IFR/low MVFR cigs are again expected to develop shortly before 12Z Wednesday over Deep E TX/portions of NCntrl LA S of I-20, with cigs maintained at LFK, and brief cigs possible across the I-20 terminals except MLU between 12-15Z, before scattering out. A scattered cu field should again develop over much of the area by late morning through the afternoon, before diminishing shortly after sunset Wednesday. SSW winds 5kts or less tonight will increase to 6-10kts after 15Z. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 78 98 78 98 / 0 0 0 10 MLU 77 98 77 98 / 10 10 0 20 DEQ 74 98 74 95 / 0 0 0 20 TXK 78 99 78 98 / 0 0 0 20 ELD 76 98 76 98 / 0 0 0 20 TYR 77 97 77 97 / 0 0 0 10 GGG 77 95 75 95 / 0 0 0 10 LFK 75 95 74 95 / 0 0 0 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ050-051- 059>061-070>073. LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ001>006- 010>014-017>022. OK...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ096-097- 108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...15