124
FXUS64 KSHV 180119
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
819 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Current visible satellite imagery shows a surface low spinning
across portions of Oklahoma. This low will be the catalyst for our
first round of thunderstorms through the evening hours, and into
tomorrow morning. This remnant MCS will first move east into C.
Arkansas, where some heavy rainfall may be possible overnight in
our far northern zones. Additionally, a few of these storms may
be strong to severe, with damaging winds being the primary threat
with any storm that does become severe. Thankfully, this threat
is relatively marginal, with only a marginal risk from the SPC in
place for locations north of I-20.

This MCS will begin to drop south overnight, as the cold front
begins to force its hand. Here, additional showers and
thunderstorms will be possible through the day tomorrow, with
heavy rainfall being possible with these as well. With their mid-
day update, the WPC has introduced a slight risk for excessive
rainfall for our portions of E. Texas and NW. Louisiana. Isolated
flash flooding could be possible during this timeframe, but most
guidance has this MCS progressing through the region at a rather
reasonable rate. In turn, widespread flash flooding is not
anticipated, with most locations seeing between 2-4 inches of
rainfall into Friday.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Longwave troughing will continue to work into the region through
the weekend, reinforcing itself into Monday. This will allow for
cooler air to remain filtering into the region, with afternoon
highs running around five degrees below normal. As better rain
chances return to the region by Monday, some locations could run
10 degrees below normal, with afternoon highs hovering in the mid
to upper-80s. Given the location of this troughing, and a few
disturbances riding the upper-level flow, rain chances will linger
for most of the long-term.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 815 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Difficult 00z TAF package given the TSTM changes over the next 24
hours across our area terminals. Prevailed VCTS with TEMPO groups
through most terminals through around the 06z timeframe with a
break in convective trends until closer to 12z. A majority of High
Res progs are hinting at pre-sunrise convection developing near
or around the I-20 Corridor in NE TX and NW LA with this
convection advancing south and east post sunrise. Handled this
with additional VCTS FM groups through the morning hours with a
break in convective coverage expected from west to east late in
the TAF period on Thu. Cannot rule out the likelihood of at least
MVFR ceilings accompanying convection after midnight and through
the morning hours on Thu as well. Winds will be mostly variable
overnight, becoming northeast on the back side of the convection
with the arrival of a cold front.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  87  73  87 /  70  70  50  40
MLU  73  89  71  85 /  60  80  60  60
DEQ  70  83  67  86 /  80  60  10  10
TXK  73  85  70  86 /  70  70  20  20
ELD  70  83  68  83 /  70  80  30  30
TYR  74  86  71  87 /  50  60  30  30
GGG  73  85  71  86 /  60  70  40  30
LFK  73  88  71  86 /  50  70  50  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...13