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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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918 FXUS64 KSHV 191550 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1050 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1049 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 No update is needed to the overnight forecast package at this time. /44/ && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday) Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 The synoptic pattern which looks to define the course of this forecast period can be succinctly summarized as follows: a large area of ridging will dominate the western third of the CONUS, with its axis positioned over the western Rockies and intermountain West, while a trough of varying depth extends from the Great Lakes across the Midwest and occasionally down into the Plains. It is not an exaggeration to say that the above captures the days ahead of us in full, and this forecast period may be simply defined as unsettled. This morning, a pseudo-stationary frontal boundary will continue producing areas of showers and storms across the southeastern corner of the ArkLaTex. These areas of rainfall look to continue for much of the daylight hours today, tapering off at last towards the alter evening. Organized severe weather is not anticipated, but training areas of heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding across an area extending from Toledo Bend Country to the ArkLaMiss. Conditions will remain mostly quiet overnight into Saturday, before another round of storms impacts our southeastern third as the boundary lifts north again. Temperatures throughout will remain near or just below average, with highs today climbing into the mid to upper 80s, falling to lows in the middle 60s to lower 70s, and climbing into the upper 80s and lower 90s again Saturday. /26/ && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Saturday`s storms will linger overnight, becoming more widespread into the day Sunday as a fresh disturbance swings into the region on the troughing aloft. Areawide rainfall chances will thereafter continue through to the end of this long term forecast period, oscillating in coverage and confidence as further disturbances ride the flow aloft. The latest long range model guidance indicates particular confidence in widespread rainfall Monday afternoon As the upper level ridging aloft begins to reassert itself and build somewhat eastward, the upper level pattern will resemble the northwest flow so characteristic of springtime in the ArkLaTex. Fortunately, as of this writing, the highest SWO category including the ArkLaTex is General Thunder. The eRO, meanwhile, indicates the possibility of heavy rainfall resulting in areas of flash flooding, and this eventuality will be monitored closely through the coming days. This weekend may turn out to see the warmest afternoons of this long range forecast, with Sunday`s lower 90s returning to mid to upper 80s Monday, where they will remain for the rest of the week. Lows will remain fairly steady in the upper 60s to lower 70s. /26/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 651 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 IFR cigs have developed early this morning across Lower E TX along/S of I-20, with a mix of MVFR/VFR cigs farther E across N LA where isolated to more numerous areas of convection have developed near a weak shear axis that has begun to drift SE through extreme SE TX/Cntrl and NE LA. Brief IFR cigs may spread into SHV through mid-morning, but should begin to lift/scatter out here and across Lower E TX. MVFR cigs should persist though at MLU where the convection will linger through at least mid-morning before beginning to diminish. While an extensive cu field should develop later this morning through the afternoon, these cigs should eventually scatter out by mid to late afternoon, with the cu field possibly lingering tonight across NE LA. Patchy FG also can`t be ruled out late tonight across portions of N LA/Deep E TX but low confidence precludes mention for the affected terminals attm. NE winds 5-8kts today will become light NE after 00Z. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 89 72 93 74 / 10 0 10 10 MLU 86 70 91 71 / 50 20 20 20 DEQ 87 63 89 67 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 90 66 91 70 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 86 65 91 68 / 10 0 10 10 TYR 89 70 91 73 / 0 0 0 10 GGG 89 70 91 71 / 10 0 10 10 LFK 88 71 90 71 / 30 10 30 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...20