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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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869 FXUS64 KSHV 071958 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 258 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday Night) Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Flood Watch 5849: The latest QPF guidance supports the issuance of a Flood Watch for our Oklahoma and Texas counties, together with adjacent portions of extreme southwest Arkansas and northwest Louisiana. Based on the current timing projections, this Watch will be in effect from 12Z Monday through 20Z Tuesday. Overview/Near-term: As of the 19Z hour Sunday multiple areas of precipitation are impacting or about to impact the ArkLaTex. A remnant band of light precip from the morning drifts north from Louisiana into arkansas, while a more robust band has taken shape, tracking north across the I-20 corridor of east Texas. Meanwhile, the decaying remnants of this morning`s storms in central Oklahoma may bring some showers to McCurtain county shortly. Finally, a band of more widespread heavy rainfall is moving north into deep east Texas, with a possibility of producing damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph as it also tracks north west towards I-20. Impacts from these rounds of precip will continue through the evening, tapering off at intermittent intervals overnight, becoming more widespread into tomorrow morning as the outer bands of Beryl begin to more persistently impact the ArkLaTex. Hazards: Monday will see simultaneous and overlapping hazards presented to much of the region, in the form of severe weather and flash flooding. The training rain bands will be capable of producing torrential rainfall for hours at a time for locations across deep east and east Texas. Meanwhile, a large north-south swath of the ArkLaTex, approximately centered on the I-49 corridor has been outlooked in a Slight Risk for severe weather. As Beryl approaches, bands within the front right quadrant (i.e. on the southeastern side of the cyclone) will be potentially capable of producing brief spinup tornadoes. Additionally, damaging severe winds may also pose a threat. Timing: The latest guidance distributed by the NHC tracks the center of Beryl into the ArkLaTex from the southwest during the day Monday, approaching the Three State Point near daybreak Tuesday and exiting the area to the northeast during the day Tuesday. Keep in mind, this is meant to provide a general idea of the storm`s movement, not a precise timetable. Based on this guidance, areawide rainfall chances will continue solidly through the end of the short term forecast period (12Z Tuesday). Temperatures: Tonight`s lows will drop into the low to middle 70s for most sites, climbing only into the middle to upper 80s during the day tomorrow across east Texas, with a few lower 90s in central to eastern Louisiana. Aided by the rain cooling effects and wind shift introduced by Beryl, lows on Tuesday morning may manage to drop into the upper 60s northwest to middle 70s southeast. /26/ && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 By daybreak Tuesday, the center of Beryl, to the extent the storm remains organized, should be roughly centered over the Three State Point of the ArkLaTex, advancing with relative speed north and east into Arkansas through the course of the day, as it looks to get picked up by the upper level troughing digging south over the Ozarks, which will help speed its departure. Guidance continues to carry areawide rainfall chances through 00Z Wednesday, but depending on the speed Beryl achieves, this activity and the needs for its associated Flood watch may come to an end somewhat sooner. After Beryl`s rainfall concludes, the ArkLaTex looks to remain relatively dry- here meaning no additional rainfall- overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, with the only PoPs Wednesday looking to be some scattered thunderstorms south of US-84. This will mark the beginning of a somewhat unsettled but rather more typical pattern of July in the ArkLaTex, with afternoon convection across our southern third, usually of the sea breeze variety, between 18Z and 00Z, coming to an end through the evening, with conditions remaining quiet overnight and through the following morning, a regime which looks to still be in play through the end of the long term forecast period next weekend. Temperatures on Tuesday will still be mitigated by Beryl`s rainfall, ranging from the lower 80s north to upper 80s south, with the following days exhibiting a rapid return to seasonable and above average temperatures, with areawide highs in the low to mid 90s by the end of the week, and possible further warming into next weekend. Lows will trend accordingly, climbing from the 60s and lower 70s Wednesday back into the mid to upper 70s by the end of the week. /26/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 148 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 VFR conditions will continue this afternoon and much of tonight, before conditions begin to deteriorate with the landfall of TS Beryl along the middle TX coast Monday morning. Cu cigs have developed early this afternoon across much of E TX, with the cu field more scattered elsewhere, with scattered convection having recently developed SE of TYR, which will gradually spread NW through mid-afternoon. More concentrated convection associated with the outer bands of Beryl have shifted NW into Deep E TX, and will affect LFK by or shortly before 20Z, with additional scattered convection expected to develop and spread N to the I-20 terminals of E TX/N LA between 23-02Z. Gusty winds to near 30kts, reduced vsbys, and MVFR cigs will be possible in/near the convection before diminishing, with AC/cirrus cigs lingering through the evening and overnight hours. However, MVFR cigs are expected to develop after 06Z Monday over Deep E TX/WCntrl LA, before developing farther N to the TYR/GGG/SHV terminals by/after 12Z. Others areas of stratocu should develop between 12-15Z across the remainder of the region, gradually lifting through midday. The convective bands surrounding the center of Beryl should begin affecting LFK between 12-16Z, where RA/vsby reductions were added. Did insert VCSH mention for TYR/GGG by 15-16Z, with the more impactful cigs/vsbys reductions in RA affecting SHV by/after 18Z. ESE winds 5-10kts this afternoon will diminish to around 5kts after 00Z. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 78 87 74 88 / 30 80 80 40 MLU 75 92 75 90 / 40 50 60 50 DEQ 72 84 67 82 / 40 80 80 60 TXK 76 87 70 85 / 40 80 80 50 ELD 73 89 70 83 / 30 60 70 60 TYR 76 83 70 88 / 30 90 70 30 GGG 75 83 70 87 / 30 90 80 30 LFK 75 82 71 89 / 30 90 60 30 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon for ARZ050-051-059-060-070-071. LA...Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon for LAZ001-002-010. OK...Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon for OKZ077. TX...Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...15