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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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578 FXUS64 KSHV 031800 AAA AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Shreveport LA 100 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1059 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 No major wholesale updates are required to the forecast package at this time. Based on aggressive warming trends this morning, nudged a few sites up by 1 degree for afternoon highs, but stubborn surface level moisture should prevent runaway heating into the afternoon. Still looking for highs near the century mark across much of the region this afternoon, with heat indices between 105 and 115 degrees. Model guidance shows little to no convection this afternoon, as the apex of the ridging fixes itself over the ArkLaTex. Ingested the most recent several hours of temperature and dew point obs and interpolated through 00Z. /26/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 VFR conditions will continue through the 03/18Z TAF period. A scattered cu field has developed early this afternoon across N LA/Srn AR/Deep E and extreme Ern TX, and will continue farther W through the afternoon, before diminishing by early to mid evening. Isolated to widely scattered convection will be possible this afternoon over portions of Deep E TX/NCntrl LA, but confidence remains too low to include VCTS mention for the terminals in these areas. Any convection that does develop should diminish by early to mid evening, although some cirrus will linger through the overnight hours over portions of E TX/N LA. Some areas of stratocu are expected to develop by/shortly after daybreak Thursday over portions of Deep E TX/NCntrl LA, with a scattered cu field developing by late morning/early afternoon. Any convection Thursday afternoon will be isolated, mainly over Deep E TX/N LA. SSW winds 5-8kts this afternoon will diminish to 5kts or less after 00Z. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 102 82 99 81 / 10 0 10 10 MLU 99 78 97 79 / 20 10 20 10 DEQ 98 77 97 74 / 10 0 10 30 TXK 101 80 99 78 / 10 10 10 20 ELD 99 78 97 76 / 10 10 10 20 TYR 99 80 99 78 / 0 0 0 10 GGG 99 79 98 78 / 10 10 0 10 LFK 98 77 97 77 / 20 10 10 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ050-051- 059>061-070>073. LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ001>006- 010>014-017>022. OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ077. TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ097-112- 126-138-150>153-165>167. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ096-108>111-124-125- 136-137-149. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 AVIATION...15