738
FXUS64 KSHV 050847
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
347 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

The short-term forecast period is quite complex, especially over
the first 24 hours. Convection is ongoing across Southern Oklahoma
just north of the Red River ahead of a cold front. Latest radar
loops indicate this convection is weakening, but it is possible
that it could survive long enough to move into McCurtain County in
Southeast Oklahoma and portions of extreme Northeast Texas around
sunrise this morning. Satellite images and surface observations
also show an outflow boundary moving southeast away from the
convection, and was located very close to the Interstate 30
corridor as of 08z this morning (3 AM CDT).

The outflow boundary and cold front should serve as foci for
renewed development of showers and thunderstorms today, especially
during the afternoon. Convective coverage should be rather
widespread, although the stronger storms are still expected to be
somewhat spotty. One or two isolated severe storms posing a threat
for damaging winds cannot be completely ruled out, but the
overall risk is low. The greatest coverage of thunderstorms should
be across Louisiana and South Central Arkansas where deep layer
moisture will be the greatest. Rain chances should slowly diminish
from north to south this evening as the front eventually becomes
quasi-stationary south of Interstate 20 in Louisiana and Deep East
Texas.

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain
possible along the frontal boundary through the overnight hours.
Coverage should once again increase south of I-20 Saturday
afternoon during peak daytime heating and as a weak upper
disturbance passes over the region. Rain chances on Saturday
should be slightly lower compared to today.

The rain chances and associated cloud cover makes today`s
temperature forecast and potential for high levels of heat very
uncertain. I trended several degrees below model guidance as many
of the models were still suggesting high temps will be in the mid
to upper 90s today. Given the high amount of cloud cover and the
high rain chances today, that seemed too aggressive. Dewpoints in
the mid 70s to near 80 degrees combined with temps in the lower
to mid 90s still yield max heat indices near or above 105 degrees
across much of Louisiana. However, based on the arrival time of
the highest PoPs this afternoon, heat index values are only
expected to be above advisory criteria for only an hour or two.
Given this brief time window, we chose not to issue heat headlines
today.

Daytime high temperatures may be near today`s values again on
Saturday, or possibly a degree or two cooler. However, dewpoints
should be significantly lower behind the front, which should keep
us well below Heat Advisory criteria on Saturday.

CN

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

The long-term period is expected to remain rather unsettled with
broad upper trough firmly entrenched across the Central CONUS,
which will finally slowly move east of the Mississippi River
during the latter half of the week. On the plus side, this should
keep temperatures significantly cooler than the last week and well
below triple digits along with bringing increased chances for
much-needed rainfall to most of the area.

As the upper trough digs southward into the Central Plains Sunday
and Monday, this should push another cold front southwards towards
the forecast area. Today`s remnant frontal boundary should move
back northwards as a warm front and Sunday but will server as a
focus for showers and thunderstorms as a vort max moves across
Oklahoma and into the Ozarks. Rain chances are expected to
increase for much of next week as the remnants of Hurricane Beryl
move north and northeast through Texas and will interact with next
week`s cold front.

There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the track of
Beryl after moving inland in either Northern Mexico or South
Texas. This also results in uncertainty regarding the timing for
more widespread rain chances. The GFS, which is the faster of the
model guidance, suggests this could occur as early as Monday. The
ECMWF is a bit later and more into Tuesday. In either case,
widespread convection appears likely areawide Tuesday and
Wednesday, possibly into portions of Thursday, as what`s left of
Beryl weakens and merges with the broad upper trough over the
Central CONUS.

The moisture-rich tropical system should bring the best chances
for widespread wetting rains that we`ve seen in several weeks. It
will still be quite humid, but the widespread precip and cloud
cover will keep the oppressive heat from returning until well
after next Friday. In fact, daytime high temperatures may remain
below 90 degrees in most locations for much of the upcoming work
week.

CN

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

A frontal boundary will shift south across the region today
bringing VCSH/VCTS conditions to area terminals from 05/21Z to
06/00Z with conditions improving thereafter. Otherwise, VFR
conditions to prevail areawide. Southwest winds around 5 knots
this morning to become northwest today behind the front, then
light and variable overnight. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  77  94  76 /  60  50  40  10
MLU  94  74  92  72 /  60  50  30  10
DEQ  90  69  92  67 /  40  10  10   0
TXK  91  72  94  71 /  50  20  20   0
ELD  91  70  92  69 /  60  20  20   0
TYR  94  75  93  74 /  50  40  40  10
GGG  93  73  93  73 /  60  30  40  10
LFK  95  75  92  74 /  30  40  70  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...05