Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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359 FXUS63 KSGF 100722 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 222 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. - Heat indicies climb into the upper 90s to around 100 degrees this weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 215 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Remnants of Beryl have moved off into Illinois with northwest flow aloft setting up across the central US. A strong summer time high/upper level ridge was still set up across the western US. A high pressure axis was located across Kansas and Missouri. Cool temperatures were being observed with most locations in the lower to middle 60s. Mostly clear skies, light winds and wet grounds have allowed for some light/patchy fog to develop. This is mainly across area river valleys and lakes. Residual flooding was occuring across some of the harder hit streams in the eastern Ozarks (Current River and Jacks Fork River). Today: With some low level moisture present, expect some fair weather cumulus to develop during the day. NBM data suggests high confidence in temps reaching the middle to upper 80s across most of the area today with a few areas coming close to 90 out west. Shortwave energy will drop into Nebraska, Iowa and northern Missouri during the afternoon. This will likely cause some scattered showers and storms to form across northern Missouri however they look to remain north of the area for the most part with chances less than 10 percent north of Highway 54. Tonight: High res guidance and the RAP continues to support the development of isolated showers and storms overnight across northwest Missouri. This is in an area of lift from the nose of a low level jet and that shortwave energy. A few of these showers or storms may drop into areas along and north of Highway 54 overnight into early Thursday morning with current precip chances in the 15-20 percent range. Otherwise we could see additional light river fog across the eastern ozarks. Thursday: A slightly higher chance for isolated afternoon showers and storms exists on Thursday (20-25% chance) as shortwave energy moves through Missouri. These showers and storms would likely be brief with many areas remaining dry. Highs in the upper 80s to around 90 are likely. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 215 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Friday: A similar situation to Thursday with passing shortwave energy during peak heating causing a few showers and storms with precip chances in the 20-25% range. NBM spreads are small with temps with high confidence in another day of upper 80s to lower 90s. This Weekend into early next week: Ensembles continue to suggest that the upper level high out west will expand/slide to the east towards the central US. This will allow for southwest winds at 850mb to advect in warmer air (850mb temps 20-23C). Low level moisture looks to remain trapped with dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70. NBM has been consistently showing temps reaching the lower to middle 90s Saturday and especially Sunday with even middle to upper 90s by early next week. 850mb temp climatology would support these temps and the risk for hazardous heat indicies (100-105) appears to be increasing for Sunday through at least Monday. High pressure will suppress rain chances to less than 10 percent. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1246 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Patchy fog will develop through sunrise with the highest chances for MVFR reduction at BBG. VFR conditions are then expected through the TAF period with partly cloudy skies and light and variable winds. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burchfield LONG TERM...Burchfield AVIATION...Burchfield