544
FXUS63 KSGF 160747
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
247 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory continues today. Afternoon heat index values
  will range from 103 to 109 degrees. Excessive heat to linger
  into Tuesday with another Heat Advisory.

- Cold front brings 60-80% chances for showers and thunderstorm
  late Tuesday through Wednesday night. Slight Risk for
  excessive rainfall and Marginal Risk for severe storms.

- Below average temperatures Wednesday into the weekend with dry
  conditions until Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Upper air analysis shows a positively-tilted upper-level trough
centered over Ontario moving southeast. Convection is firing in
western Kansas and Illinois. At the surface, a cold front is
situated to our northeast, by the border with Kansas, Nebraska,
and Iowa. This front is moving slowly southeast. Temperatures
are currently around 80 with some scattered clouds.

As the cold front continues to move to the south, model guidance
suggests thunderstorms will develop across north-central Missouri
and move south as the LLJ noses into western Missouri. Recent CAM
runs show some support for these storms moving south across our
area, which will come with a risk for elevated convection. Some of
these storms may produce hail of one inch or less, and some locally
heavy rainfall.

Some of the storms from this morning may linger into the afternoon,
but the highest chances (50-80%) for storms will be from the late
afternoon into Wednesday morning, as the LLJ again creeps into
southwest Missouri from Oklahoma and Arkansas. High resolution
models show MLCAPE values of 2500-4000 J/kg across southern
Missouri. Shear on the other hand is rather modest, so the main
severe hazard will be strong winds. The Storm Prediction Center
currently has our entire CWA under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5)
for severe weather. A stalled surface low to the southwest in
Oklahoma may allow multiple rounds of storms to go over the same
areas. This brings with it a risk for flash flooding. A flash flood
watch has been issued from 7 PM Tuesday night until 7 AM Wednesday
morning, primarily for areas to the east of Highway 65. 48 hour HREF
PMM guidance indicates that localized areas of 3-5" of rain are
possible, so be sure to practice flood safety tonight.

Temperatures today will range from around 90 to the upper 90s, with
temperatures increasing the further south you go. A heat advisory is
in effect until 8 PM for all but 3 of our counties. Given the
uncertainty of morning storms, and increased cloud cover compared to
yesterday, high temperatures were forecast today using a blend of
the NBM deterministic forecast and NBM 25th percentile, so on the
lower end. However, if there are less storms, or less cloud cover,
heat indices can still easily reach 105 to 110 degrees in our
southern counties given the continued humidity. Lows tonight will
reach the low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Behind the passage of the cold front, high temperatures fall to the
low to mid 80s on Wednesday. This will usher in a period of cooler
and drier conditions. The 6-10 day Climate Prediction Center
Temperature Outlook has our area at a 60-80% chance of below average
temperatures, with highs consistently in the 80s and lows in the 60s
for the next few days. Precipitation chances remain under 20% until
Sunday, as long range forecast models are beginning to pick up on
some shortwave energy moving into the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

VFR conditions will be in place for the first few hours of the
TAF period. From there, things get a bit dicier. There will be
low-level wind shear as the LLJ strengthens overnight and moves
northeast over Missouri from 09z-15z, aided by wind gusts of
20-25 knots. After this time, wind shear should gradually
decrease.

There was not enough confidence to include the chances for
morning thunderstorms at the TAF sites in the TAFs, and most
storms should stay to the north. However, a stray storm or two
is possible, with higher chances at JLN and SGF. Low storm
chances exist throughout the afternoon, but the highest
chances for storms occur in the evening around 0z and after.
Went with a prob30 for now at all 3 TAF sites, but this may be
upgraded as confidence in storm coverage increases throughout
the day.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for MOZ055-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kenny
LONG TERM...Kenny
AVIATION...Kenny