718
FXUS63 KSGF 121959
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
259 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms ending by late afternoon in the
  eastern Ozarks. Additional thunderstorms early Saturday
  morning north of Interstate 44.

- Heat index values will range from near 100 to 105 Sunday
  through Tuesday.

- A cold front arriving Tuesday night and Wednesday will bring
  scattered thunderstorms and cooler weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 217 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

The mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) that produced scattered
thunderstorms and localized heavy rain and flooding continues to
track southeast into the eastern Ozarks. Thunderstorms will end
from west to east with the exit of this lifting mechanism and
easing of daytime heating. Dry weather is likely this evening
with subsidence behind the departing MCV.

Attention then focuses upstream to additional shortwave energy
overtopping the upper level ridge centered over Utah. Water
vapor depicts shortwave energy over Nebraska migrating
southwest. Additional thunderstorms are anticipated to develop
in the Plains overnight aided by this shortwave energy. With
favorable northwest flow aloft, thunderstorms will be guided
southeast towards the Ozarks overnight into early Saturday
morning.

Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain scattered. The
severe threat will be limited with the flooding potential
enhanced where thunderstorms track over the same areas and where
the highest rainfall rates are realized. The atmosphere remains
moist with precipital water values over 1.25 inches. Localized
heavy rain will be likely near the strongest thunderstorm
updrafts.

Lows tonight will remain on the mild side ranging from the
upper 60s to lower 70s. The heat builds Saturday afternoon with
lingering morning convection ending and the upper ridge
expanding eastward. Highs will be in the lower 90s with heat
index values near 100.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 217 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

The heat and impacts increase through Tuesday. An upper level
ridge will build east over the Plains bringing a warmer airmass
to the region. High temperatures will range from the mid to
upper 90s and low temperatures in the 70s. Tuesday looks to be
the hottest day. Heat index values will range from near 100 to
105. Heat impacts will be cumulative due to multiple hot and
muggy days with limited cooling during the overnight hours. Heat
headlines are likely from Sunday through Tuesday.

Heat relief and chances for thunderstorms arrive Tuesday night
and Wednesday with the approach of a cold front. This front will
gradually move south into the Ozarks with scattered
thunderstorms developing near and behind the front. A cooler
airmass will settle into the Ozarks with high pressure building
over the Ohio Valley. The high will build east late next week
with a steady increase in temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

A mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) is tracking southeast
through the Missouri Ozarks bringing scattered thunderstorms.
Thunderstorms look to clear Springfield (SGF) and Branson (BBG)
by mid afternoon with Joplin (JLN) remaining dry.

After the passage of the MCV, ceilings will gradually raise
with the predominant wind direction becoming south. There is a
conditional risk for thunderstorms around 12z. This is dependent
upon the development of upstream thunderstorms propagating
southeast to the aerodromes. Confidence is low at this time and
have opted to leave out of the TAFs and readdress with the 0z
and 06z forecasts.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Angle
LONG TERM...Angle
AVIATION...Angle