313
FXUS63 KSGF 151120
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
620 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory continues today. Afternoon heat index values
  will range from 103 to 109 degrees. Excessive heat to linger
  into Tuesday, so another heat advisory was issued.

- Cold front brings 60-70% chances for showers and thunderstorm
  late Tuesday through Wednesday night. Slight Risk for
  excessive rainfall and Marginal Risk for severe storms.

- Below average temperatures Wednesday into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 202 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Upper-level analysis shows an area of high pressure located by the
Colorado-New Mexico border. This feature, combined with southerly
surface winds providing warm air advection and moisture advection
ensure continuing heat and humidity.

Clear skies are expected through most of the day today. As such,
temperatures today will reach into the mid to upper 90s, with highs
of 100 possible in far southeast Missouri. A heat advisory is in
effect for the entire CWA through Monday 8 PM, as dewpoints in
the low 70s will combine with the high temperatures to create
heat indices from 105-109 degrees. Lows Monday night into
Tuesday fall to the mid to upper 70s, providing little relief
from the daytime heat.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 202 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Beginning Monday night, the upper-level high will begin to move
south as a positively tilted trough centered over Ontario moves
southeast. This will allow a cold front to move south over
Missouri, reaching northern Missouri by Tuesday morning. A LLJ
looks to develop overnight over eastern Oklahoma, eastern
Kansas, and northwest Missouri. Interactions between the LLJ and
cold front will result in some showers developing across north
central Missouri. Some model guidance/CAMs shows some of these
storms moving south across our area Tuesday morning, but
confidence in this scenario is limited, and these storms would
be weakening anyway. Temperatures Tuesday will range from the
low 90s for our more northern counties, lower due to cloud cover
and potential morning storms, to the upper 90s as you go
further south. With dewpoints staying in the 70s,heat indices
will range from 103-109, so another heat advisory was issued for
Tuesday for all counties expat for Morgan, Miller, and Maries.

Greater storm coverage over our area is expected Tuesday evening
into Wednesday as the LLJ that develops Tuesday night and the cold
front interact with each other. Ample instability exists, with the
NBM showing an 80% chance for SBCAPE exceeding 2500 J/kg. The Storm
Prediction Center currently has our area in a Marginal (Level 1
of 5) Risk for severe weather during this time. The primary
severe hazard is expected to be heavy winds. Additionally,
flooding may pose a problem given the higher soil moisture and
precipitable water vapor from 1.75-2". The Weather Prediction
Center currently has us in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall
over most of central Missouri. Given the passage of the cold
front and more robust cloud cover throughout the day,
temperatures on Wednesday will reach the low to mid 80s.

Beyond Wednesday, temperatures cool down significantly. The Climate
Prediction Center gives a 60-80% chance of below average
temperatures for the next 6-10 days. As a nice change of pace from
the heat and humidity, highs will only reach the low to mid 80s, a
couple degrees below local climatology, with dewpoints blissfully in
the 50s and 60s. Lows look to be in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Chances of precipitation are consistently less than 25%.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 601 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF period. Winds will be
consistently southwesterly throughout the day, gusting up to 20
knots at KSGF and KJLN. Some wind shear is possible early
Tuesday morning as the low-level-jet kicks in overnight. Some
storms may be possible late in the TAF period, but should mostly
stay north of the TAF sites and coverage will be limited, so
they were not put in the TAFs.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ073-097-
     101.
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ055-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kenny
LONG TERM...Kenny
AVIATION...Kenny