852
FXUS66 KSEW 140313
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
813 PM PDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.UPDATE...Clear skies this evening for most areas with low stratus
sliding southward along the coast. Onshore flow will increase
again tonight, with stratus spreading inland across Grays Harbor
County and likely as far east as Shelton. Otherwise, dry
conditions continue with the ridge.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level ridge remains over Western Washington
through the weekend into next week with continued low level
onshore flow. This will maintain above normal temperatures, with
only subtle variations in the strength of the marine pushes each
night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Zonal flow will remain in
place today as a flat upper level ridge remains parked over
western Washington. Lingering marine stratus over coastal
locations will dissipate by this afternoon, joining the rest of
the area in clear skies. Interior locations will have temperatures
warm into the mid 80s, while coastal locations will see highs
ranging from the mid 60s to the lower 70s.

Temperatures will continue to remain above normal through the
interior through the short term, while this persistent pattern
of light onshore flow will continue through the first half of
next week.

Zonal flow and the aforementioned weak upper ridge will shift
eastward on Tuesday, opening the way for a longwave trough to
nudge closer to the region.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...As the ridge shifts
eastward into Wednesday, a longwave trough offshore will introduce
a dry south/southwesterly flow throughout the area. This may open
the door to increased convection chances in the Cascades as a
weak front attempts to cross over the region. Ensemble guidance
showing low probabilities at this time, but it is something to
monitor over the next couple of days. As of now, the most likely
outcome would be continued warm and dry conditions, but some light
precipitation may be possible during this time frame (Cascade
focused).

An upper level ridge to the east looks to intensify through the
remaining of the long term period, with temperatures still staying
above average, in the mid to upper 80s.

Mazurkiewicz

&&

.AVIATION...West-southwest flow will continue aloft with ridging
over the Pacific Northwest. Clear skies for most areas through
Sunday. However, stratus along the coast will spread inland
tonight, with LIFR/IFR cigs for HQM, and as far east as SHN into
Sunday morning. Cigs will clear again into Sunday afternoon for
these areas, with lower cigs lingering along the coast. Generally
light winds tonight, increasing from the W/SW on Sunday.

KSEA...Clear skies. N/NE winds will become lighter into tonight
and slowly transition to W/SW by Sunday morning. JD

&&

.MARINE...Little change in the weather pattern with high pressure
situated offshore and a thermal trough over eastern Washington. A
Small Craft Advisory continues through today over the outermost
coastal waters for gusty northwesterly winds up to 25 kt, with the
highest speeds concentrated farther than 30-40 NM offshore.
Diurnally driven pushes of westerly winds down the Strait of Juan de
Fuca will occasionally be strong enough to warrant additional
headlines into next week, with the next strongest push expected to
be Sunday evening.

Seas 6 to 8 ft across the coastal waters will decrease Sunday night
into Monday to around 4 to 6 ft through the beginning of next week.

15

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Coastal
     Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
     60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
     Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm.

&&

$$