769
FXUS61 KRNK 060206
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1006 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure offshore will continue to keep muggy conditions
around through tonight. A front over the Ohio/TN Valleys late
Friday will move east and across the Mid-Atlantic by Saturday
night into early Sunday. Spotty showers and thunderstorms will
remain in the forecast for early next week as an upper level
trough develops over the central United States.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1000 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Watch for fog formation tonight, more so for areas which
received rain.

Showers and thunderstorms have diminished. Areas along and west
of the Blue Ridge had the greatest coverage. For the overnight,
muggy conditions will persist with dewpoints remaining AOA 70.
Expect areas of fog where rain occurred with potential for
patchy dense fog.

A cold front will move east of the area by Saturday. Still
expecting a few showers, but nothing like what we had Friday.
Trends in the models showing a further east/south push to the
deeper moisture but still enough low level moisture and upper
shortwave energy to produce scattered showers/storms Saturday
afternoon east of I-81.

After today`s heat/humidity, some reprieve at least across the
mountains/foothills for Saturday as dewpoints drop into the 60s.

Muggy tonight with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s, then
another very warm to hot day Saturday but again dewpoints to
take some bite out of the heat, with 80s in the mountains, to
lower to mid 90s east. Heat indices could be around 100 or so
southeast of a Buckingham to Danville to Greensboro line.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1215 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1. A cold front will bring slightly drier air, limiting showers and
thunderstorms to areas mainly south of Highway 460.

2. Slightly cooler temperatures expected for this weekend, though
these will still be near to slightly above normal.

Looking to Saturday night, weather forecast models are in decent
agreement that a cold front will make slow progress eastward across
central Virginia, where it will gradually stall as it loses its push
of cooler drier air from the northwest. Difficult at this point to
determine where the front will eventually stall. Regardless, it is
expected to remain both close enough and shallow enough to support
lingering showers and thunderstorms through Sunday night, mainly for
areas to the south of Highway 460. Because of light steering winds,
whatever activity that does develop has the potential to produce a
few heavy/prolonged downpours that may result in localized flooding
issues. Enough dry air will be present north of Highway 460 to limit
any coverage of rainfall to isolated pockets at best.

By Monday however, the front will begin to lose its characteristics
and fade/wash out as low pressure passes across the Great Lakes,
dragging another cold front across the lower Ohio River Valley.
Southerly wind flow will increase in response to the area of
low pressure, carrying deeper moisture from the Gulf of Mexico
northward. This will allow for coverage of spotty showers and
storms to expand further northward to include southeast West
Virginia through the southern Shenandoah Valley.

Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal through the
period.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1. Warmer than normal temperatures with daily storms next week.

Spotty showers and thunderstorms will develop each afternoon through
the middle of the next workweek as a cold front approaches from the
west on Tuesday and eventually stalls somewhere across the Mid-
Atlantic. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms looks highest for
Tuesday as an upper level disturbance passes across the central
Appalachians. Precipitable water values will remain abnormally high
through the period, ranging from 1.7 inches to as high as 2.2 inches
for much of the area, which would support the potential for heavy
downpours, especially from the slower-moving cells.

Warmer than normal temperatures are expected Tuesday and Wednesday.
Near normal temperatures are possible for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1000 PM EDT Friday...

Areas of fog expected overnight with potential for IFR
conditions in the mountains per visibility dropping blo 3sm. A
period of dense fog is likely in the mountain valleys and along
the western slopes of the Appalachians where a layer of low
level stratus may form.

Any fog/stratus tonight is expected to dissipate by mid morning
Saturday with return of widespread VFR Saturday afternoon.

Average confidence in the above forecast.


AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Some lingering showers and sub-VFR possible Saturday evening in
the DAN area. Fog possible through the period in the early
mornings. The pattern stays unsettled such that daily chances
for storms exists. Thinking mainly VFR but sub-VFR when it
storms and any late night fog.

Confidence is moderate for the extended aviation outlook.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 300 AM EDT Friday...

Record highs and warmest lows temperatures for July 5th.

Lynchburg tied their record high for the 5th!

Friday 07/05/2024
Site  MaxT Year  HiMin Year
KBLF    93 1948    71 1969
KDAN   103 1919    76 1926
KLYH    98 2012    75 1900
KROA   100 1999    76 2012
KRNK    94 1930    78 1949

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH/WP/PM
NEAR TERM...PM/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...PM/SH/WP
CLIMATE...RCS/SH