685
FXUS61 KRNK 191818
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
218 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled front over North Carolinas returns north tonight and
Saturday. The weather pattern stays active through the beginning
of next week with periods of showers and thunderstorms and
gradually warming temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for showers and thunderstorms.

2) Localize heavy rainfall possible.

A stalled boundary will begin to move northward tonight as a
shortwave tracks over the southern Appalachian mountains. This
wave will move over the forecast area overnight into Saturday.
Rainfall amounts will average around a half inch areawide, but
could see a few efficient storms drop 1-2 inches of rain in the
vicinity of the NC/VA border. In the latest model runs,
instabilities are not as high as they were with yesterday,
therefore the severe threat is very low.

High temperatures today will peak from the upper 70s to mid 80s
With rain and thick cloud cover over the area for most of
Saturday, temperatures will be 3F-5F cooler than today. Saturday
high temperatures will vary from the 70s across the mountains
to lower 80s in the foothills and piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 155 PM EDT Friday...

Key messages:

    - Little change in the weather pattern

Stagnant upper air pattern through the period with a long wave
positively tilted trough over the eastern United States. This
keeps the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas in deep southwest flow and
abundant moisture. Precipitable water values will waver between
1.0 and 2.0 inches, generally as much as two standard deviations
above normal. Integrated water vapor transport and synoptic
scale models do not add any detail during this type of pattern.
Confidence is high that there will be a daily probability of
showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening,
as is typical. But no particular surface boundaries or guidance
to narrow down to a more precise timing and location. While the
potential for showers and thunderstorms covers much of the
mountains, southern Virginia and northern North Carolina, the
southern Blue Ridge will be the most likely location for storm
development.

What storms do form will have a good potential to produce very
heavy rainfall rates, therefore there is a prolonged low risk of
flooding.

AS for as temperatures, highs will be near normal and lows will
be through the period will be just above normal, mainly due to
the low level moisture/mild surface dew points.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 205 PM EDT Friday...

Key messages:

    - Chance for thunderstorms every day

Similar to the shorter range of the forecast, little to no
change the weather pattern is expected through Friday. Models do
hint at slightly higher 500 MB heights by the end of the week.
So, temperatures may warm gradually Wednesday through Friday. As
the daily threat for afternoon and evening thunderstorms
continues, so does the potential for locally heavy rain and
isolated flooding.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Friday...

A mid-level disturbance will track from the the southern
Appalachian today to over the forecast area Saturday morning.
This disturbance will push a boundary northward, increasing the
chance for showers and a few thunderstorms overnight into early
Saturday afternoon. Sub- VFR conditions are likely to bounce
around due to localized heavy rain, low clouds and fog. Flight
restrictions should begin to improve Saturday afternoon.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...

An upper level trough over the Mississippi Valley and an upper
level ridge in the western Atlantic will keep an active weather
pattern through the beginning of next week with periods of MVFR
showers and thunderstorms.

Late night fog with result in IFR to MVFR visibility, otherwise
VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...RCS