605
FXUS61 KRNK 080904
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
504 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Little change in the weather pattern is expected through the end of
the week. Scattered thunderstorms each afternoon and evening will
have the potential to produce very heavy rain. Tuesday and Wednesday
will be the hottest days of the week, with the humid conditions and
unseasonably warm temperatures continuing into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Monday...

Key messages:

    - Highest confidence for thunderstorms and excessive
      rainfall in the North Carolina mountains and foothills

Overall pattern keeps southeast surface and low level wind today,
reacting convergence along and just east of the southern Blue Ridge.
This may result in a similar training pattern as seen on Sunday
with storms forming and moving northeast, then forming again
near the original location were the convergence is maximized.

The Ensemble situational Awareness tables showed the highest
concentration of well above normal precipitable water values in the
North Carolina foothills today. Rainfall will again be in the
2-4 inches/per range. This potential for excessive rainfall will
be highlighted in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

Bufkit forecast soundings showed a layer of warmer air between 850
and 800 MB. It may take until 19z/3PM for to reach the convective
temperature and overcome this cap. Broken layer of mid and high
clouds will somewhat limit heating this morning, but starting out in
the mid 60s to mid 70s, so not a stretch to get back into the 80s
and 90s. Muggy surface dew points in the lower 60s to lower 70s, so
no major changes to forecast lows for tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
... As of 420 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1: Sweltering heat on Tuesday

2: Scattered diurnal showers each afternoon

Some mid-level ridging and southerly flow will contribute to near
record level heat on Tuesday. Heat indices will be anomalously high,
especially east of the Blue Ridge where the heat index will likely
exceed 100F for most of the area, and nearer to central VA could
exceed 105F for several hours of the afternoon. Moisture in the
atmosphere will also be excessive, with PWATs between 1.5-2".
Diurnal showers will pepper our CWA each afternoon, with no
particular area of concentration. Perhaps mountainous areas will
experience more coverage thanks to orographics, but there is no
driving force other than diurnal heating and an excess of available
moisture. Rain rates will be very high in some of these storms, so
localized flash flooding will be something to monitor as these
storms occur.

The much weakened remnants of Beryl could pass close enough to
southwestern VA to introduce additional moisture to the atmosphere,
but we shouldn`t expect winds to increase. Beryl will be absorbed
into an upper trough which will largely pass to our west, allowing
Wednesday to be a touch cooler than Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
... As of 500 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1: Diurnal showers and storms continue

The overall forecast in the long term looks similar to the short
term. Temperatures will remain above normal for most of the period.
Mid-level flow looks to be mostly zonal, with some potential for a
weekend trough coming out of the Great Lakes. Atmospheric moisture
will remain on the high end, leading to a continuation of the
diurnal showers and storms from the first half of the week. Again,
forecast soundings point to the potential for high rain rates, and
thus localized flash flooding potential. By this point in the week,
some areas will have received heavy showers from earlier and will be
at greater risk as those areas` soil moistures will be elevated.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 325 AM EDT Monday...

Overall pattern keeps southeast surface and low level wind today,
reacting convergence along and just east of the southern Blue Ridge.
This may result in a similar training pattern as seen on Sunday
with storms forming and moving northeast, then forming again
near the original location were the convergence is maximized. A
majority of the thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will
remain south of KBLF and KBCB.

Bufkit forecast soundings showed a layer of warmer air between
850 and 800 MB. It may take until 19z/3PM for to reach the
convective temperature and overcome this cap. Broken layer of
mid and high clouds this morning was keeping IFR/LIFR fog and
stratus patchy. Satellite showing more gaps in the high clouds
west of the Blue Ridge. This favors MVFR to LIFR fog at KLWB and
KBCB before 12Z/8AM. Any stratus and fog should dissipate by
13-14z.

Average confidence on ceiling and wind.
Below average confidence on timing and extent of thunderstorm
coverage today.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Little change in the weather pattern through the rest of the
week. This will result in a daily threat of thunderstorms,
mainly in the afternoon and evening.

Prevailing conditions will be VFR. The exception will be brief
periods of IFR/MVFR with the thunderstorms and also with
overnight fog.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 520 AM EDT Monday...

Records for the warmest minimum temperatures may be set at
Blacksburg on Monday and Tuesday.

Tuesday looks to be the warmest day of the week so those records
have been listed here.


July 8th
Site  MaxT Year  MinT Year  LoMax Year  HiMin Year
KBLF    93 2012    45 1951     70 1947     71 1977
KDAN   103 2012    54 1979     74 1949     78 1930
KLYH   101 2012    53 1983     68 1918     75 2022
KROA   102 2012    50 1979     74 1949     77 2012
KRNK    96 1988    42 1896     67 1896     70 1941

July 9th
Site  MaxT Year  MinT Year  LoMax Year  HiMin Year
KBLF    92 2007    42 1918     63 1979     75 1994
KDAN   103 1977    52 2018     69 1950     76 1987
KLYH   102 1936    53 2018     66 1927     74 1992
KROA   101 1936    48 1918     68 1969     77 1992
KRNK    97 1988    42 1961     67 1927     67 1939

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
As of 820 PM EDT Sunday...

KFCX Radar is degraded...Horizontal Low Noise Amplifier is INOP,
damaged by thunderstorm. Data from the radar has been
compromised. Please use data with caution. A replacement
amplifier has been emergency ordered. Estimated back in service
time is 6PM Tuesday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...AMS/PM
CLIMATE...AMS
EQUIPMENT...PM