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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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887 FXUS61 KRNK 180134 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 934 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A front will cross the region tonight, bringing thunderstorms this evening. This front shifts south of the area by Friday allowing for cooler temperatures, but the proximity of the front will keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 930 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: 1) A few strong storms possible til midnight. 2) More thunderstorms on Thursday. The severe thunderstorm watch was cancelled as main line of deep convection with damaging winds had exited east of our area. Still some strong storms dropping heavy rain, frequent lightning and gusty winds this evening from the foothills to southside VA and the NC piedmont. SBCAPES running 1000-1500 J/kg and airmass starting to stabilize, though a spike to severe in southside VA into the NC piedmont still possible. Previous discussion... Dropped the severe thunderstorm watch from Amherst/Lynchburg west to the Shenandoah Valley. Strong/severe storms ongoing from Buckingham to east of Gretna. Severe threat should diminish by 7-8pm, but still cannot rule out stronger storms through 10pm. Previous discussion... Thunderstorms are will continue to develop this afternoon and storms will be capable of strong winds gusts and very heavy rainfall. Convective allowing models still indicate an more organized line evolving as the storms cross east of the Blue Ridge and tracks through the piedmont, mainly between 20Z/4PM and 00Z/8PM. Showers and thunderstorms will diminish in coverage after sunset but never completely erode. A cold front will cross through the area overnight turning the wind from the southwest to the northwest. This will also bring clouds into the mountains after midnight. Expect patchy fog to develop after sunset, especially in locations that have rain in the afternoon and evening. Best probability of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening will be in southern Virginia and northern North Carolina. Lows tonight will be mild, limited by the surface dew points in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Stayed close to NBM for highs on Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 1245 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Points: 1. Near normal temperatures. 2. Showers/Storms limited to mainly southern sections Thursday night through Friday night. 3. Better coverage of showers/storms on Saturday. A look at the 17 July 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500 mb Geopotential heights shows a general area of troughiness extending from central Quebec southwest into the Lower Ohio Valley. Within this general region of troughiness, some ensemble averaged shortwave trough are expected to head along roughly the US/Canadian border. This pattern places our region within southwest flow aloft. At the surface Thursday night into Friday, high pressure will be centered over the Ohio Valley with a frontal boundary oriented w-e over the Deep South. By Saturday into Saturday night, there may be a bit of buckling northward of this front. Ensemble averaging offers only small hint at this while some deterministic guidance and WPC forecast frontal positions offer stronger support of this trend. Output from the 17 July 00Z Ensemble Situational Awareness Table shows 850mb temperatures averaging about +13C to +15C across the area Thursday night into Friday. By Saturday into Saturday night, temperatures moderate a bit to around +17C across the region. Precipitable Water (PW) values Thursday into Thursday night will be on a tight nw-se gradient across the region with values around 0.75 over Southeast WV to around 1.50 inches over Southside Virginia. As we progress into Saturday/Saturday night, values increase to a nw-se gradient of around 1.50 inches to 1.75 inches. The above weather scenario suggest that Friday may be the driest day of this portion of the forecast with the front farther south, and high pressure building into the Ohio Valley. As the front shifts a bit farther north on Saturday, we may see better daytime coverage of diurnal afternoon/evening activity before it dissipates after sunset. Temperatures are expected to be near normal values for this time of year. Confidence in this section of the forecast is moderate. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1245 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Points: 1. Temperature trending to values above normal. 2. Shower/Storm chances trending higher. 3. Locally heavy rain possible by Tuesday/Wednesday. A look at the 17 July 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500 mb Geopotential heights shows the persistent trough to our northwest remaining in place through Wednesday. However, on gradual change is expected to be a weakening of this trough as an equally persistent ridge over the Southeast US strengthens. This pattern still keeps us within a southwest flow aloft, but with better ridging closed to overhead, we may be more capped to surface based convection and see higher temperatures. At the surface, the center of surface high pressure heads north into Canada from the Ohio Valley, and a frontal boundary tracks north to closer to the Ohio Valley. This would place our region on the warm side of the front. Additionally, a ridge of surface high pressure builds into the Southeast US. Output from the 17 July 00z Ensemble Situational Awareness Table shows 850mb temperatures average about +17C to +18C across the region each day. PW values gradually increase through the period. By Wednesday, values of 1.75 to 2.00 inches will be common across the region. Those areas at or above the 2.00 inch mark will be within the 90 to 97.5 percentile of the 30-year climatology. The above weather scenario offers moderating temperatures with values a little above average through the period. Precipitation will be on the increase as a front lifts north of the region. Once the front is north of the region, the region will be in a more unstable regime with above normal afternoon temperatures and higher humidity values. By Tuesday/Wednesday, locally heavy rain will be possible given above normal PW values. Confidence in the above weather scenarios is low to moderate. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 715 PM EDT Wednesday... Thunderstorms will impact DAN, possibly LYH/BLF/BCB through 03z, then appears things quiet down overnight. Concern will be for fog and low stratus to form overnight and think most sites will see sub-VFR cigs/vsbys with confidence higher at all but ROA/DAN. Could see LIFR at BLF/LWB. Vsbys should return to VFR by 14-15z, but lower cigs possible through 16z in the mountains before VFR returns. Storms possible again Thursday with best chance southeast of a line from FVX- TNB, so have VCTS at DAN only, but changes to tafs possible tomorrow. Average confidence in ceiling, visibility, and wind. AVIATION OUTLOOK... Front will be slow to exit the region, or be positioned just south of the area into the weekend. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area on Friday through Monday. Expect sub-VFR conditions with any of these storms. Late night fog with result in IFR to MVFR visibility, otherwise VFR. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS/WP SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...AMS/WP