289
FXUS61 KRNK 182338
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
738 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A front over the Mid Atlantic will briefly drop into the Carolinas
tonight then return north Friday night and Saturday. The weather
pattern stays active through the beginning with periods of showers
and thunderstorms and gradually warming temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 700 PM EDT Thursday...

Key messages:

    - Just a few spotty showers this evening, maybe a
      thunderstorm. Patchy fog overnight
    - Friday max temperatures slightly below normal

Precip is waning with loss of heating going into early evening.
There is an upstream wave that could spark a shower or two but
overall trend is for limited coverage if any tonight. Best
chance through the evening will be over southside VA/NC piedmont
closer to the better instability. Fog could be an issue
overnight with some clearing but confidence still low to what
extent and how low vsbys drop. The mountains still seem more
plausible to have more fog.

Previous discussion...


Just a few showers/storms out there today, with best deep
convection along instability gradient staying south and east of
us. With lack of organized deep convection expected this
evening, have dropped the flood watch.

Cannot rule out a storm or two that could bring gusty winds or
localized flooding but areal coverage will be low.

Previous discussion...

Another round of showers and thunderstorms will cross the area this
evening as a short wave tracks northeast through Virginia. The
highest probability precipitation will be south of Route 460.

Surface dew points may drop below 60 degrees at the higher
elevations late tonight, and below 70 degrees in Southside Virgina
and the North Carolina piedmont. As a result minimum temperatures
will cool into the upper 50s to upper 60s, close to normal.

Southeast West Virginia, much of southwest Virginia will be
north of the surface boundary on Friday with a northeast to east
wind. The better probability of showers and thunderstorms will
be over North Carolina and southern Virginia closer to the
surface front. Expecting the more unstable air mass to be south
of the region, eliminating the chance of severe thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 135 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for showers and thunderstorms Saturday.

2) Temperatures will remain near seasonable values.

A stalled boundary will begin to move northward Friday night as a
shortwave tracks over the southern Appalachian mountains. This wave
will move over the forecast area late Friday night into Saturday.
Rainfall amounts will average around a half inch with the heaviest
rain occurring Saturday afternoon. Clouds should become thin enough
for instabilities to increase over the NW NC foothills and piedmont
and Southside VA for strong storms to develop during the afternoon
and evening hours. High temperatures Saturday will vary from the mid
70s to mid 80s.

As the shortwave tracks north Saturday evening, high pressure will
build over the area. This surface ridge should keep the area rain-
free through Sunday night. High temperatures Sunday will range from
the upper 70s to lower 80s across the mountains and mid to upper 80s
in the foothills and piedmont.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 205 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for the daily showers and thunderstorms to
continue into the next work week.

2) Little change in temperatures are expected with values staying
near normal.

The area will be stuck between an upper level trough over the
central Mississippi River Valley and a large upper level ridge
centered over Bermuda. Waves of low pressure are expected to move
from the Gulf and then over the region each day through the period.
Each wave will have the potential to bring a healthy amount of rain
to the area. As each wave passes, the threat for flooding will
increase. Strong storms are also possible, but the main threat will
be flash flooding.

Near seasonal temperatures are likely through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Thursday...

Could have a showers near DAN this evening, otherwise VFR.

Expect MVFR fog to develop overnight with pockets of IFR/LIFR.
The fog will lift and dissipate by 14Z/10AM Friday.

VFR Friday with the better probability of showers and
thunderstorms over North Carolina and southern Virginia closer
to the surface front, but not coverage for having it in the tafs
yet. Winds turn from north tonight to east/southeast Friday
afternoon but under 10kts.

Average confidence for ceiling, visibility, and wind.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Front returns north Friday night and Saturday. The weather
pattern stays active through the beginning of next week with
periods of MVFR showers and thunderstorms.

Late night fog with result in IFR to MVFR visibility, otherwise
VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/BMG/WP