Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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562 FXUS61 KRNK 071101 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 701 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A front will waver across central and eastern Virginia and North Carolina through the week. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue each day. Unseasonably warm and humid weather will also remain over the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 500 AM EDT Sunday... Key message: - Highest confidence for thunderstorms across North Carolina and southern Virginia this afternoon and evening Front will remain stalled over the region today. Surface dew points were in the 70s on the east side of the boundary. Guidance has the front drifting back to the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge today, allowing those higher dew points to expand northwest. The hottest heat index will be in the 95 to 100 degree range in the foothills and piedmont around 4PM. A majority of the convective allowing models show scattered to numerous thunderstorms along and south of the Virginia/North Carolina border, mainly after 2PM. More questionable is the coverage of thunderstorms along the low level convergence with the front. Convective Available Potential energy is forecast to be in the 500- 1000 J/kg and shear is minimal, so no organized threat of severe thunderstorms anticipated. Isolated flash flooding is possible, especially southeast of the front where rainfall rates could be the 2-4 in/hour. These rates are supported by precipitable water values of 1.7 to 2.3 inches, above 2 standard deviations above normal. The abundant moisture will also contribute to mild temperatures overnight. Most locations on the southeast side of the front will not drop below 70 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 500 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: 1: Diurnally driven showers early this week 2: Showers could have high rain rates A nearly stationary front in the Mid-Atlantic will continue the process of losing its boundary characteristics. However, southerly flow will continue to advect in anomalously warm moist air. PWATs of 1.75-2.25" around the area will be at least a couple standard deviations above normal according to NAEFS situational awareness tool. Even in the middle of July, a PWAT of 2" in Danville is quite a lot of moisture. With such a moisture laden atmosphere, even with the loss of frontal boundary forcing, scattered diurnal showers will be wont to form throughout our CWA. In addition to the excessive atmospheric moisture, model soundings depict tall skinny CAPE profiles, which are generally indicative of efficient rain processes. Localized flooding will be a concern as we monitor any showers that do form, because of the potential for high rain rates. It will also be anomalously warm, with highs each day in the upper 80s and mid 90s east of the Blue Ridge, and in the 80s west. This will make for rather uncomfortable outdoor conditions in the Piedmont and Southside, where heat indices will likely reach 100- 103F during the afternoons. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 500 AM EDT Sunday... Key Message: 1: Diurnal showers and storms continue There won`t be much change in the overall weather pattern for us on the east coast over the course of this week. Broad troughing to our west, and a stout Bermuda High on the east will ensure that we continue to receive warm moist advection. The only feature that will be out of the norm is the washed up remains of Beryl. By the time that Beryl reaches the Ohio Valley, it will have weakened enough that its unlikely we receive any wind impacts. What could happen though, is another infusion of atmospheric moisture. As such, expect temperatures to be above normal, and diurnal showers and storms to form each afternoon and evening. && .AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 655 AM EDT Sunday... Mainly VFR with scattered to broken mid and high clouds through 16Z/noon. Front will remain stalled over the region today. A majority of the convective allowing models show scattered to numerous thunderstorms along and south of the Virginia/North Carolina border, mainly after 2PM. Thunderstorms have the potential for MVFR ceilings and MVFR or lower visibility due to very heavy rain. More questionable is the coverage of thunderstorms along the low level convergence with the front. The most likely TAF site to have thunderstorms will be KDAN. Average confidence for ceiling, visibility, wind. Average confidence for timing and location of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. AVIATION OUTLOOK... Little change in the weather pattern and location of the front is expected through the rest of the week. This will result in a daily threat of thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening. Prevailing conditions will be VFR. The exception will be brief periods of IFR/MVFR with the thunderstorms and also with overnight fog. && .CLIMATE... As of 520 AM EDT Sunday... Records for the warmest minimum temperatures may be set at Blacksburg on Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday looks to be the warmest day of the week so those records have been listed here. July 7th Site MaxT Year MinT Year LoMax Year HiMin Year KBLF 93 2012 44 1951 65 1967 73 1998 KDAN 104 2010 55 1979 76 1961 78 1921 KLYH 100 2012 52 2001 72 2005 75 1977 KROA 102 2012 48 1983 74 2005 78 1977 KRNK 94 2010 41 1972 67 1967 67 2022 July 8th Site MaxT Year MinT Year LoMax Year HiMin Year KBLF 93 2012 45 1951 70 1947 71 1977 KDAN 103 2012 54 1979 74 1949 78 1930 KLYH 101 2012 53 1983 68 1918 75 2022 KROA 102 2012 50 1979 74 1949 77 2012 KRNK 96 1988 42 1896 67 1896 70 1941 July 9th Site MaxT Year MinT Year LoMax Year HiMin Year KBLF 92 2007 42 1918 63 1979 75 1994 KDAN 103 1977 52 2018 69 1950 76 1987 KLYH 102 1936 53 2018 66 1927 74 1992 KROA 101 1936 48 1918 68 1969 77 1992 KRNK 97 1988 42 1961 67 1927 67 1939 && .EQUIPMENT... As of 520 AM EDT Sunday... KFCX Radar is degraded...Horizontal Low Noise Amplifier is INOP, damaged by thunderstorm. Please use data with caution. High reflectivity above 40 dbz appears OK, but the radar is unable to detect and lower reflectivity. A Low Noise Amplifier has been emergency ordered. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...NF AVIATION...AMS/PM CLIMATE...AMS EQUIPMENT...PM