Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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523 FXUS61 KRLX 100741 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 341 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Remnants of Beryl and cold front cross this morning. High pressure Thursday/Friday. The weather pattern then settles into a typical summer regime, with mainly diurnal storms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 315 AM Wednesday... Remnants of post-tropical cyclone Beryl will continue to move northeast across Indiana and Ohio this morning. A warm front is draped across the northern portions of the forecast area with a cold front over Kentucky branching off of the main circulation of Beryl. Showers and thunderstorms are spawning in the warm sector and will continue to do so through the morning. While the most concerning of storms and the heaviest of rain will stay to our west, there is still a marginal risk for severe storms and excessive rainfall across portions of southeast Ohio, northeast Kentucky and the Tri-State Area this morning. Damaging winds and an isolated tornado threat will be the main concerns. Cold front looks to arrive to the forecast area by sunrise, with a few showers/storms still continuing across the aforementioned area. This activity will shift along the mountains by afternoon as the front starts to exit eastward. Models are starting to keep most of the area dry from later this morning into the afternoon; even the more bullish convective models are more hesitant to keep PoPs around into the afternoon. Most likely due to anticipated dry slotting this morning and the front moving out this afternoon. As mentioned, most of the higher chances for precipitation will remain across the mountains this afternoon. SPC has general thunderstorm probabilities for today across the northern lowlands and the mountains. A marginal risk for excessive rainfall is clipping Randolph and Pocahontas counties today, but most of the QPF guidance keeps the heaviest rain to our east. Will still need to keep an eye out with any heavy downpours that occur. Another hot and sultry day is expected today, though temperatures will be less warm compared to previous days. The lowlands can expect highs in the 80s to around 90, while the mountains will range between the mid 70s to the mid 80s. Temperatures will be less warm across southeast Ohio, northeast Kentucky and the Tri-State Area as cloud cover and remnant moisture will inhibit temperatures from rising too much. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 340 AM Wednesday... High pressure builds into the area Thursday, then breaks down as an inverted trough forms in response to a mid/upper-level short wave trough Friday, and then builds back in in its wake Friday night. The short wave and inverted surface trough may be just enough impetus for an afternoon pop-up shower or thunderstorm in the mountains Friday afternoon. Otherwise, the weather will be dry, and mainly clear, calm conditions may allow overnight valley fog formation Thursday and Friday nights. Near normal temperatures Thursday and Thursday night give way to above normal temperatures Friday and Friday night. This includes lowland highs back up into the lower 90s on Friday, but humidity will still be manageably low. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1157 AM Tuesday... A subtle ridge will try to build back into the forecast area Friday, which should help temperatures reach the lower 90s again across the lowlands. A southern stream of energy will track northward along the eastern seaboard, but this feature should be far enough east with minimal impacts expected over our region. The WV northern mountains may see a few showers and a thunderstorm Friday, but chances should remain fairly low (30-40% PoPs) with the bulk of the moisture farther east. A warm, summer-like pattern will begin this weekend, lasting into next week. Expect a mostly dry weekend, but diurnal rain chances will increase again next week as rounds of shortwave energy approach from the northwest. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 130 AM Wednesday... Isolated showers and storms remain possible this morning as a system grazes us, but ultimately passing to the west. Higher chances for activity will be situated along the Ohio River and points west. This could affect HTS and PKB early this morning. More showers and storms are expected with the passage of a cold front during the day. While much of the area should experience VFR conditions during the TAF period, occasional MVFR/IFR restrictions could occur in any rain and storms. Winds will be light and variable this morning, then increase after sunrise. South to southwest winds are then expected today, with 20-30kt gusts possible through the majority of the day. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of showers/thunderstorms may vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 07/10/24 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H M H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... Brief IFR possible in afternoon storms this weekend or early next week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/LTC NEAR TERM...LTC SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...LTC