Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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954 FXUS61 KRLX 102003 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 403 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Remnants of Beryl pull off to the north this evening. High pressure Thursday through Saturday. Typical mid-summer weather ensues next week, with mainly afternoon/evening thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 400 PM Wednesday... Post-frontal mixing this afternoon in association with the remnants of Beryl has resulted in wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph across the region, with isolated higher gusts in excess of 45 mph. Gusty conditions are expected through early this evening, gradually dissipating thereafter. An SPS has been issued for the central/northern CWA through early this evening to highlight the gusty wind potential. The rest of the forecast remains on track. As of 140 PM Wednesday... The remnants of Beryl will pull off to the north this evening. Some showers could linger into this evening before dissipating. Northwest winds could keep some clouds over the upslope areas of northeastern West Virginia tonight. A high pressure system will build in overnight, allowing for winds to go light in southwestern West Virginia, northeastern Kentucky, and southwestern Virginia. This could allow for some river valley fog to form in that area. The high will then provide dry weather for Thursday with seasonable temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 1108 AM Wednesday... Key Point: * The heat will return on Friday under mostly dry conditions. The cooler spell expected on Thursday will be short lived, as the 90s are expected to return across the lowlands on Friday. Bermuda high pressure over the Atlantic will strengthen and expand over the eastern seaboard Friday, causing 500-mb heights to rise over our region. This will lead to the aforementioned warm up. The only chance of rain Friday will be over the northern mountains, and it will be a small chance because most of the upper-level energy and moisture will be east of the mountains. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1109 AM Wednesday... * The best chance of rain this weekend will be Sunday afternoon and evening, but it will be a small chance, and most places will remain dry. * Another potential heat wave looks likely next week with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. A hot and mostly rain-free weekend is on the way with temperatures expected to reach the middle 90s across the lowlands and the upper 80s to lower 90s in the mountains. Weak vorticity aloft may trigger a spotty thunderstorm Sunday afternoon and evening, but the chance seems small at this time. By Monday, the center of the upper-level ridge will be strengthening over the Central U.S. and rounds of vorticity will stream into our direction from the northwest, which will keep our weather unsettled into the early part of next week. Expect more unseasonably hot weather with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. Highs will once again reach the middle to upper 90s across the lowlands each afternoon through midweek as the upper-level ridge expands, and we will once again have to remember to practice heat safety. The next potential front bringing relief may not arrive until next Thursday or Friday. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 145 PM Wednesday... A few showers are possible through this evening. Some clouds overnight over northeastern West Virginia could cause MVFR restrictions. In addition, some river valley fog could form over northeastern Kentucky, southern West Virginia, and southwestern Virginia. After any early morning fog burns off and clouds over northeastern West Virginia lift, VFR conditions can then be expected through Thursday afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Showers this afternoon could cause brief restrictions. Timing and density of fog could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 EDT 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M L H H AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/GW/JMC/NS NEAR TERM...RPY/GW/NS SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...RPY