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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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594 FXUS61 KRLX 112336 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 736 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure prevails through Saturday, providing mainly dry and warm weather. A more active weather summer pattern ensues next week, with potential storm complexes amid heat and humidity. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1256 PM Thursday... Dry conditions will prevail under the influence of a surface high pressure. Few to scattered afternoon cu, evident on satellite imagery, will dissipate by sunset, leading to a mostly clear sky for tonight into Friday. Guidance suggests some patchy river valley fog developing, mostly across the southern half of the forecast area, due to decoupling from high pressure. Fog could be locally dense, but will clear up by sunrise. Light southerly winds will become calm tonight, and then light and variable on Friday, but could be breezy during the afternoon hours across the higher ridges of the mountains. Tonight, near normal temperatures are expected, generally in the low to mid 60s across the lowlands, and ranging between mid 50s and lower 60s across the higher elevations. A gradual warming trend starts on Friday with highs in the low to mid 90s across the lowlands, and into the mid 70s northeast mountains. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1230 PM Thursday... Surface high pressure gives way to an upper level short wave which will slide through the area on Saturday. This wave will add lift to help diurnal convection along the mountains which will likely ignite from the elevated heat effect. Elsewhere should remain dry although a few drops out of afternoon convection could make it into other areas near the mountains. Temperatures will continue to be in a warming trend with much of the area well above seasonable. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1230 PM Thursday... High surface pressure remains in place for Sunday although another very small short wave aloft will create the possibility for some diurnal activity across much of the area. Monday should be protected by high pressure for most of the time although another disturbance from the northwest will push closer to the area and start to spread chances of precipitation in from the north later in the day. Models are very divergent on this solution, therefore went mostly with blended model guidance. By Tuesday, the same disturbance will advect in a frontal boundary which will likely stick around as a semi-stationary boundary through the rest of this period as models hint. Even though they are divergent still, they do come together by Wednesday, therefore accepted central guidance and capped all precipitation and thunder probability to 50% for the very end of this period. A warming trend will continue for much of this period with heat indexes rising to the low triple digits for much of the lowlands on Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will then dip down on Thursday where they are forecast to be slightly below normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 729 PM Thursday... Winds will continue to relax this evening. VFR conditions will prevail for the first part of the night. Patchy dense fog is expected to develop in a few of the river valleys overnight (KEKN, KCRW), mainly from 06Z to sunrise. KEKN is expected to drop down to IFR for most of that timeframe. Any fog that develops at KCRW should be patchy and short-lived, with VISBY restrictions only dropping to MVFR. Another quiet day is expected Friday, but thunderstorms may develop Friday afternoon in the mountains. VCTS was included in the latest TAF package at KBKW and KEKN for Friday afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Patchy dense fog may not develop at KEKN or KCRW. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JZ NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...JZ AVIATION...JMC