Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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162 FXUS61 KRLX 131307 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 907 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Much of the area remains dry today. A more active weather summer pattern ensues next week, with potential storm complexes amid heat and humidity. Cold frontal passage Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 907 AM Saturday... The forecast remains on track this morning, no changes needed at this time. As of 545 AM Saturday... The current forecast is on track this morning. No significant changes are needed at this time. As of 200 AM Saturday... Dry conditions are expected to persist across most of the forecast area today, though a combination of daytime heating, increasing humidity, and passing shortwave energy could facilitate the development of isolated afternoon showers or storms mainly in the western part of the CWA. Any activity should then taper off toward sundown, resulting in yet another calm and quiet night. Afternoon highs are expected to reach low to mid 90s in the lowlands and upper 70s to 80s along the mountains. Hot temperatures combined with humidity should make it feel more like mid to upper 90s in the lowlands. Temperatures remain mild tonight, with lows ranging from mid 60s to low 70s in the lowlands and low to mid 60s along the mountains. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM Saturday... Key Points: * Heat index values continue to rise into the start of the week, with many spots in the lowlands stretching into the triple digit mark. * A northern stream disturbance brings light rain to parts of the forecast area overnight Sunday into Monday. Surface high pressure nestled over the area at the start of the forecast period will continue to advertise not only dry weather, but a warming pattern under a rising height pattern. An uptick in low level moisture will be instigated by a southerly wind shift, attracting warm Gulf moisture up into the region. This sets the stage for the return of rising humidity and growing concern in regards to heat indices. Apparent temperature readings in the upper 90s will be observed by peaking heating hours Sunday afternoon, especially from the Charleston metro area and west into the Tri-State area. A passing northern stream disturbance encroaches the Ohio Valley late Sunday afternoon and may douse parts of our forecast area with much needed rain by the evening and overnight periods. Anticipated rainfall amounts do not look to extinguish the drought conditions we are currently facing in this very dry summer pattern, but will be a brief reprieve from this ongoing dry spell for north-central West Virginia and southeast Ohio. The new work week opens up with lingering showers as the disturbance streams through the Great Lakes region. However, the bigger story will continue to be the dangerous heat index values that ramp up for Monday afternoon. Areas across the central lowlands and along the Ohio River Valley are projected to reach heat indices of 100-102 degrees during that time, imposing concerns for dangerous heat impacts in the event of long duration exposure outside. Will continue to highlight the Monday, and even Tuesday, heat wave in the HWO. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 315 AM Saturday... Key Points: * Dangerous heat continues across the Central Appalachians on Tuesday, with heat indices once again extending above 100 degrees. * A cold front brings beneficial rain from showers and storms by midweek as well as a cool down for the latter half of the week. Little to no changes in the upper level pattern will sustain the local heat wave present in the lower elevations and WV foothills once again on Tuesday afternoon. We can once again expect heat index values extending up into the triple digits for the vase majority of the forecast area. A welcome reprieve from the heat will arrive around midweek in the form of a cold front diving down from the Upper Midwest. This boundary will also supply the region with the best potential for beneficial rainfall for the week, arriving Tuesday evening and maintaining residency into parts of Thursday as the front passes overhead. WPC rainfall accumulations depict amounts of around an inch to an inch and a half to fall within this frontal passage, with locally higher amounts possible in the event of a heavier shower and/or thunderstorm. A cool down in the wake of the front takes shape for the conclusion of this forecast period into next weekend. && .AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 545 AM Saturday... Patchy fog will erode early in the TAF period, then VFR is expected at all sites for the rest of the day. While an isolated shower or storm could develop this afternoon, most of the area should remain dry and confidence in activity occurring at a terminal remains low enough to leave mention out of the TAFs. Winds become light and westerly during the day, then calm again tonight. Some patchy fog could form and cause brief MVFR/IFR restrictions at EKN overnight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A few showers/storms could impact a terminal or two this afternoon. Extent of fog tonight may vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time. && .CLIMATE... As of 315 AM Saturday... A prolonged heat wave continues across the region through Tuesday, with temperatures forecast to approach record highs in the Beckley area. The record high temperatures for Saturday, July 13 to Tuesday, July 16 are listed below for our official climate sites, along with the current forecast values. Forecast / Record High Temperatures ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Saturday, 7/13 | Sunday, 7/14 | Monday, 7/15 | Tuesday, 7/16 | ------------------------------------------------------------------------- CRW| 93 / 103 (1929)| 94 / 102 (1954)| 97 / 103 (1988)| 98 / 104 (1988) | HTS| 93 / 104 (1914)| 96 / 105 (1954)| 98 / 104 (1936)| 98 / 102 (1988) | CKB| 91 / 98 (1936)| 93 / 97 (1952)| 93 / 99 (1954)| 97 / 97 (1995) | PKB| 93 / 97 (1954)| 95 / 103 (1936)| 96 / 100 (1988)| 98 / 102 (1988) | BKW| 88 / 90 (1954)| 89 / 94 (1954)| 91 / 94 (1936)| 92 / 96 (1912) | EKN| 90 / 92 (1993)| 90 / 95 (1954)| 92 / 96 (1995)| 95 / 99 (1988) | ------------------------------------------------------------------------- && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MEK/JLB/JMC NEAR TERM...JLB/JMC SHORT TERM...MEK LONG TERM...MEK AVIATION...JLB CLIMATE...MEK/JLB