Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
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417 FXUS65 KRIW 102320 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 520 PM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming trend continues today with some isolated storms across the Winds and off the Absarokas. - Hottest temperatures to come Thursday through Sunday. - More seasonable with increasing precipitation chances early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1222 PM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024 IR currently depicts mainly clear skies under an upper level high centered to the southwest. Some cooling cloud tops associated with a couple isolated weak storms over the Winds and off the Absarokas extending to the Owl Creeks throughout the afternoon. No impacts are expected at this time. Otherwise, warming trend continues today with a slight breeze at some locations 10-20 mph with no wind and limited fire weather threats going forward despite the increasing temperatures and lowering relative humidity values. The big story will be with the building ridge to the west with increasing convergence aloft fueling the weak upper level flow pattern and pulling up the desert heat. Near record heat is expected with some locations across the Wind River and Bighorn Basins possibly breaking some high temperature records. Models are still on track with this with H7 temperatures pushing into the low 20s C. 100 degree temperatures expected east of the Divide and 90s to the west through Sunday. As the bridge weakens and shifts east late weekend, a weak trough looks to skirt to the north that will bring a "reprieve" to the heat becoming more seasonable. Models are still not in great agreement on precipitation but higher elevations and northern counties should have the best chances for early to mid next week. Otherwise, longer term outlooks continue to have average precipitation and above average temperatures that even though it is July, it still out of the norm being this warm. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 519 PM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024 VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Isolated rain showers and thunderstorms will gradually dissipate by 02Z. Outflow boundaries have developed from these showers and storms, which is leading to increased wind at several terminals. This will continue for a few hours as convection ends this evening. Then, wind will become light, with no weather threats through tonight into Thursday morning. Typical afternoon breezes return tomorrow afternoon as well as more isolated rain showers and thunderstorms. Currently, it looks like coverage of convection will be a little less than Wednesday afternoon. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon Thursday to 10 PM MDT Sunday for WYZ004>006-010-011-017-018-020. && $$ DISCUSSION...Lowe AVIATION...Rowe