Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
322 FXUS65 KREV 040929 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 229 AM PDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... * A long duration heatwave will result in a moderate to major HeatRisk through at least the middle of next week. * Dry conditions are expected into next week with chances of showers and storms remaining below 10% through the weekend. * Breezy afternoon winds may produce elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions on Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... This Independence Day will be a hot and dry one as temperatures soar into the upper 80s to low 90s for Sierra communities and flirt with 100F across lower western Nevada valleys. While it will cool off after sunset, it will still be quite warm in the immediate hours after the sun goes down when most firework shows are ongoing, especially across western Nevada. If your Independence Day plans take you outdoors, plan for a hot and sunny day by wearing light clothing, applying sunscreen, and drinking plenty of water before and while in the heat! Our heatwave will stick around for several days as amplified high pressure aloft slowly traverses from the eastern Pacific to the Four Corners area. In response, temperatures will gain around 2-3 degrees per day through Saturday and Sunday, which remain favored as the hottest days of the next seven. In fact, the weekend heat is likely to be record-breaking for many locales, including Reno where Reno-Tahoe Int`l Airport has over a 90% chance of breaking the record daily high temperature for both July 6th (forecast: 106F; record: 101F) and July 7th (forecast: 106F; record: 102F). The rest of this week and weekend will likely be dry as chances of showers and storms remain below 10%, although intense differential heating may prove sufficient for isolated afternoon showers Sunday into next week. The aforementioned upper ridge will gradually shift eastward early next week, which will allow for a degree or two of cooling each day through the end of the week. Even still, temperatures will remain well above average for much of next week as the heat refuses to relinquish its impact on the region. Winds will also become a bit more breezy each afternoon beginning Sunday with gusts up to 20-25 mph. -Salas && .AVIATION... The primary weather concern will be density altitude issues amid a long duration heatwave that lasts into next week. Otherwise, widespread VFR conditions and typical afternoon breezes will prevail. -Salas && .FIRE WEATHER... Well above normal temperatures, very low daytime humidities with poor overnight recoveries, and deep afternoon mixing heights will continue through at least the middle of next week. Winds will remain light outside of typical afternoon breezes through Saturday, but will increase Sunday afternoon as gusts approach 25-30 mph for the Sierra and Sierra Front. This may yield a multi-hour period of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions Sunday afternoon. Winds will ease slightly after Sunday but will remain breezy in the afternoon each day with gusts reaching up to 20 mph. -Salas && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 10 AM PDT Wednesday NVZ002. Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 10 AM PDT Wednesday NVZ001-003>005. CA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 10 AM PDT Wednesday CAZ070>073. && $$