832
FXUS65 KREV 050855
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
155 AM PDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

* Prolonged heat wave bears down on the Sierra and western Nevada
  and continues into next week. Plan on major heat risk impacts,
  even in the mountains. Take this one seriously.

* No major wind signals in the forecast. Fire concerns remain with
  hot temperatures, very dry air and holiday weekend celebrations.
  Localized haze possible from California wildfires.

* Isolated afternoon thunderstorm chances may return next week over
  the mountain areas, but low confidence for now.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

There are only so many ways that we can say that it is going to be
very hot and very dry, but I`ll attempt it! High pressure bearing
down on the West will ramp up the temperatures across the Sierra and
western Nevada. We know it already felt hot today, but the trend
goes up for the end of the week and into the weekend. See the latest
Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings for details. The high
pressure (aka ridge) will bring stable, hot, and dry conditions to
the Sierra and western Nevada through the weekend and likely into
much of next week. Plan on near record to record breaking for
daytime high temperatures as well as warm overnight low
temperatures. Blended guidance highlights a long duration heat wave
with multiple days of well above triple digit temperatures for the
lower elevations. The positioning of the ridge results in near zero
chances for any precipitation potential through the weekend and well
into next week as high pressure essentially blocks any monsoon
moisture into the region.

Recommendations: Please take this heat seriously. Multiple heat-
related illnesses and injuries have been reported across the West
due to the soaring temperatures. Prevention and preparation is key!
Take precautions such as limiting outdoor activity, taking breaks in
a cool area, staying hydrated, and checking in on neighbors and
relatives that may be more susceptible to heat related illness. For
more heat safety tips, please visit weather.gov/safety/heat. -Edan

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions continue at all REV TAF sites today and into the
weekend. Typical afternoon breezes are also in the forecast across
the region with KMMH possibly seeing gusts up to around 20 kts
between 20Z-03Z. Well above normal temperatures through the weekend
and into next week still may produce periods of density altitude
concerns across all TAF sites in the Sierra and western NV. -Edan

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

No changes from the previous fire weather forecast. High confidence
for well above normal temperatures, low daytime relative humidity
values, and dry conditions persisting through next week. Winds will
remain light with only late afternoon breezes up to 20 mph possible.

Next week as the ridge shifts slightly eastward, our more typical
afternoon/evening breezes may return with gusts in the 30 mph range.
Fire concerns remain with the hot temperatures, very dry conditions,
and the active holiday weekend. There are also some very slight
(<5%) chances for showers and thunderstorms starting on Sunday
afternoon. -Edan

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High and Warm Low Temperatures for July 6th-9th
at Reno-Tahoe International Airport (KRNO)
-------------------------------------------------------

Date Forecast(High/Low)Record High Record Warm Low
------   -----------------      -----------         ---------------
July 6  106/68   101F71F

July 7  106/71   102F68F

July 8  105/70   104F71F

July 9  106/69   104F69F


Current record for consecutive days of 100F or greater at KRNO is
10 days, set in July 2021 and July 2005. The record for
consecutive days of 105 or greater is only 2 days, which has
occurred 6 times in climate history, most recently July 2023. Both
of these have the potential to be broken with this heatwave.

&&


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 10 AM PDT Wednesday NVZ002.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 10 AM PDT
     Wednesday NVZ001-003>005.

CA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 10 AM PDT Wednesday
     CAZ070>073.

&&

$$