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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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595 FXUS62 KRAH 191018 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 615 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The front that moved into the region yesterday will remain nearly stationary across the state through the weekend, resulting in unsettled weather and cooler temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 159 AM Friday... Water vapor imagery this morning depicted an upper trough axis centered over New England. This feature continues to extend swly flow down the east coast and over central NC this morning. At the sfc, latest analysis depicted a cold front (noted by a dew point gradient of mid to upper 60s west; lower to mid 70s east) draped across the far southwestern NC mountains northeast through the NC foothills region. A few remnant showers and an isolated storm will be possible the next few hours, but overall lack of upper forcing should limit overall coverage this morning. Patchy fog will persist ahead of the boundary, likely maximizing across the south where the heaviest rain fell. Any residual fog should lift by early to mid morning. As we progress into the afternoon period, scattered diurnal showers and storms will likely develop. Overall, expect coverage to be less compared to Thursday and largely confined to where the boundary settles. Most high-res guidance suggests the boundary will slowly trudge through the Sandhills/Coastal Plain region early this afternoon, before possibly sagging south of our area later today. As such, expecting the best chances for showers/storms in these areas. Shear today will be weaker compared to yesterday, and as such severe weather chances today are near-zero. However, can`t rule out a gusty downdraft or two, but overall, not expecting much chance for severe storms. Given slower mean-layer cloud speeds, however, slower storm motions today could pose a risk for isolated flash flooding in urban areas. Coverage should wane this evening. However, models are hinting at a strong mid-level impulse migrating north from the deep south later tonight. As such, CAMs are hinting at an uptick in rain chances early Saturday morning, particularly across the south and west where the sfc boundary will likely have lifted. Temperatures today should max in the mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows will dip into the lower 70s. Patchy fog will be possible again primarily across the Piedmont. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 159 AM Friday... Aloft, a strong short-wave will eject through the Mid- Atlantic/northeast through Saturday night. An associated strong mid- level impulse will ride along the Appalachians inducing convection across our area Saturday. Showers and storms will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning as the impulse moves northeast over our western areas. Guidance suggests the sfc front will remain stalled across our western to northern Piedmont, which should provide additional sfc forcing for afternoon showers/storms. As the short- wave ejects eastward, increasing mid-level flow will induce upwards of 25 to 35 kts of shear across the northern half of our CWA. As such, a few organized/stronger storms will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening, with isolated damaging wind gusts the biggest concern. Similar to recent days, given the persistent, anomalously moist airmass, as well as the potential for west-east training cells, isolated flash flooding will be possible Saturday. Highs will reach the upper 80s to around 90 in the south. Overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s are expected. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 AM Friday... There is minimal change to the long term forecast. A longwave trough will extend from Quebec south into the Gulf of Mexico, and warm, moist advection will persist across much of the eastern United States. Will continue with likely pops during this time period. In addition, heavy rainfall rates means that isolated flash flooding will continue to be a threat across the entire area despite the area being in a drought. Highs should remain near climatology in the upper 80s and lower 90s. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 615 AM Friday... MVFR/IFR ceilings and vsbys will persist for a few more hours before rising to VFR by mid to late morning. Additional isolated to scattered showers/storms are then likely this afternoon, with the best chances at KRDU/KFAY/KRWI. While these showers/storms will wane this evening, additional showers and storms will be possible late tonight as an upper wave approaches from the south. IFR ceilings will once again sock back in late tonight and persist through sunrise Saturday. Beyond 12Z Saturday: Showers and storms will continue into this weekend as a front stalls over the area. Early morning fog and stratus will be possible each day as well. The wet pattern will continue into early next week. && .CLIMATE... Record High Minimum Temperatures: July 19: KGSO: 75/2016 KFAY: 77/2023 July 20: KGSO: 75/2019 KRDU: 76/2020 July 21: KGSO: 76/2011 KRDU: 78/1932 KFAY: 80/2017 July 22: KRDU: 78/2011 July 23: KRDU: 78/2011 July 24: KRDU: 79/2011 KFAY: 79/1945 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Green NEAR TERM...Luchetti SHORT TERM...Luchetti LONG TERM...Green AVIATION...Luchetti CLIMATE...RAH